Chip supply: bottlenecks deepen
CEOs are warning of tight supply — Micron filling ~50% of orders, some suppliers sold out into 2027, and SK Hynix flagged 4–5 year constraints as TSMC capacity remains stretched ( ). HBM stacking is costing yields — social reporting cites 10–20% yield loss — while Strait throughput and geopolitics are worsening lead times and prices ( ).
Micron told investors it can fulfill only about 50% to two‑thirds of key customers’ requirements in the midterm, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said on the company’s Q2 FY2026 earnings call. (fool.com) Micron projects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures will exceed $25 billion as it accelerates 1γ DRAM and G9 NAND volume ramps to push more capacity into production. (fool.com) SK Group chairman Chey Tae‑won warned the memory shortage may persist “another four to five years,” effectively stretching toward 2030, and said wafer supply is outpaced by demand by more than 20%. (bloomberg.com) SK Hynix has reported its DRAM, NAND and HBM production for next year is effectively sold out and the company says most HBM capacity is already booked into 2026. (techspot.com) Prototype and early HBM4 production runs show stacking losses in the mid‑teens, with TSV and micro‑bump defects accounting for roughly 15–20% of yield loss on some stacks. (eureka.patsnap.com) Broadcom told reporters that TSMC is “hitting production capacity limits,” identifying advanced‑packaging (CoWoS) and foundry slots as binding constraints for 2026 supply. (money.usnews.com) TSMC’s U.S. Arizona fab slots have been described as sold out through late 2027, keeping additional U.S. wafer capacity off the near‑term market. (tomshardware.com) Geopolitical shipping disruptions are lengthening lead times and lifting logistics costs: Red Sea transits fell to about 35–40% of 2023 volumes in 2025 and Suez Canal traffic remains roughly 60% below pre‑crisis levels, while the Taiwan Strait handles about $2.45 trillion in annual trade and Broadcom says some PCB and laser lead times have stretched to six months. (isdo.ch)
