Huge wildfire risk forecast

AccuWeather says U.S. wildfires could burn 5.5 million to 8 million acres in 2026, with drought and heat raising the odds of bigger fires. (accuweather.com) The company forecasts 65,000 to 80,000 fires this year, compared with 77,850 fires reported in 2025. It says the acreage burned could top last year’s 5,131,474 acres and land near the historical average of about 7 million acres. (accuweather.com) AccuWeather’s April 22 outlook points to the interior Northwest and the Rockies as the highest-risk regions this summer and fall. California is projected to burn 500,000 to 750,000 acres, below its historical average of about 1 million acres, but risk is expected to build through summer in interior and lower-elevation areas. (accuweather.com) The forecast lands as federal drought monitors show dry conditions already spread across large parts of the country. The U.S. Drought Monitor’s map released April 23, using data valid April 21, tracks conditions from abnormally dry to exceptional drought nationwide. (droughtmonitor.unl.edu) The federal climate outlook for April through June also points in the same direction. NOAA said on March 20 that drought is forecast to worsen or develop across many areas in the West and the south-central Plains, while above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the U.S. (noaa.gov) Fire agencies are already seeing an active start to the year. The National Interagency Fire Center reported 1,763,894 acres burned year to date as of April 22, with 22,091 wildfire incidents logged nationwide. (nifc.gov) The government’s own seasonal fire outlook also flags elevated risk before the core of summer. The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued April 1 covers April through July 2026 and says fire activity increased across the U.S. in March, especially in the second half of the month. (nifc.gov) AccuWeather said the bigger concern is not necessarily more ignitions, but fires that spread faster and burn longer once they start. That is the setup that can push smoke far beyond the burn zone and disrupt air quality, travel and outdoor plans hundreds or thousands of miles away. (accuweather.com) That means the 2026 fire season is shaping up as a summer-long risk, not just a Western one. If the forecast holds, smoke could become part of beach trips, mountain vacations and road travel well outside the places actually burning. (accuweather.com)