Trump's Iran Missile Claim Disputed
President Trump has claimed Iran is developing missiles capable of reaching the U.S. as part of the justification for military strikes. However, sources report this assertion is not backed by U.S. intelligence. Senior officials indicate the evidence for such long-range missile development is inconclusive or lacking, raising questions about the intelligence used to justify the escalation.
A 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment projected Iran could potentially develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2035, a timeline that intelligence sources say has not changed. This contrasts with claims that Tehran will "soon" have missiles capable of reaching the United States. Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with over 3,000 missiles in its inventory. Its most powerful missiles, such as the Sejil and Ghadr, have a maximum range of about 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), capable of striking Israel and parts of Europe. Iranian officials state they have a self-imposed range limit of 2,000 kilometers on their missiles, viewing them as a deterrent. In June 2023, the country also announced it had developed its first hypersonic missile, which can travel at least five times the speed of sound and is more difficult to intercept. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, did not include restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program, a key reason the Trump administration cited for withdrawing the U.S. in 2018. In recent nuclear negotiations, Iran has maintained that its missile program is not open for discussion. The dispute over intelligence echoes the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War. At that time, U.S. intelligence assessments incorrectly asserted that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, which was the primary justification for the invasion. That intelligence failure has since led to increased scrutiny of claims used to justify military action.
