Red Sea transits remain halved

The International Monetary Fund said on April 29 that ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait remain at roughly half their pre-attack level more than two years after attacks in the Red Sea began. The Fund said the disruption has outlasted the initial shock phase and is still forcing vessels to reroute around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal. The IMF also said regional air traffic remains disrupted and that the future path of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still unclear. The assessment appeared in the Fund’s Chart of the Week and was tied to its April 2026 World Economic Outlook. ### How far below normal is Red Sea traffic now? The IMF said Bab el-Mandeb transits are “roughly half” their pre-attack level, a measure it used to show that the Red Sea corridor has not reverted to pre-2023 patterns. The strait sits between Yemen and Djibouti at the southern entrance to the Red Sea and is the gateway to the Suez Canal route for Asia-Europe shipping. (imf.org) PortWatch, the IMF’s trade-monitoring platform, says it tracks daily maritime data using satellite-based information and covers 99% of annual maritime trade value. The platform is designed to monitor chokepoints, ports and shipping lanes in near real time, and the IMF used it as the basis for its transport disruption analysis. ### Why are ships still avoiding the Suez route? The IMF said attacks on shipping that began in 2023 forced many vessels to reroute around Africa rather than use the Suez Canal, and that pattern has persisted for more than two years. (imf.org) The Fund did not describe the detours as temporary in its April 29 note; it said there would be “no neat and clean return” even in the best case. (portwatch.imf.org) UNCTAD said the Suez Canal handled about 22% of global seaborne container trade in 2023, underscoring why prolonged diversions matter for global logistics. A longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope raises fuel use, absorbs vessel capacity and lengthens delivery times, according to UNCTAD’s shipping analysis. ### What did the IMF say about air routes and the wider Middle East corridor? (imf.org) Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said on April 16 that the war had disrupted “energy markets, trade routes, and business confidence” across one of the world’s most important economic corridors. He said air traffic collapsed at major Gulf hubs, maritime insurance premiums surged, shipping routes lengthened and logistics chains weakened. (unctad.org) The IMF blog on April 29 said the future of Strait of Hormuz transits and regional air traffic “remains unknown.” That language linked the Red Sea slowdown with broader transport risks across the Middle East rather than treating the Bab el-Mandeb disruption in isolation. ### How does the Fund connect this to prices and growth? (imf.org) The IMF said in its April 29 analysis that shipping and air disruptions slow trade, raise costs along supply chains and hit tourism-dependent and import-reliant economies hardest. It said consumers feel the effect through higher prices on food and essentials, with lower-income households bearing a larger share. (imf.org) The Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook said the global economy was again being disrupted by war in the Middle East, with renewed inflationary pressure and slower growth. UNCTAD said in its April 2026 trade update that the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz were likely to add to inflationary pressure on an already strained global economy. (imf.org) ### Is this still a shipping story, or now a broader trade story? The IMF framed the issue as a transport shock affecting both goods and people. Its April 29 note said shipping and flight disruptions reveal “new fault lines in the global economy,” while Azour’s April 16 briefing tied the conflict to damage across energy, trade and services. (imf.org) UNCTAD said Red Sea rerouting in 2024 reshaped maritime networks and put interwoven supply chains at risk. Its 2025 freight report said the Red Sea disruption extended voyage times, reduced effective capacity and increased operating costs, even after the sharpest rate spikes moderated. The IMF’s PortWatch platform remains live, and the Fund said its trade nowcast and disruption-monitor tools continue to update maritime flows across chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. (imf.org) The April 2026 World Economic Outlook and the April 29 IMF blog remain the Fund’s latest published statements tying those disruptions to global growth and supply-chain costs. (portwatch.imf.org) (unctad.org)