Trump's Iran Missile Claims Contradict Intel
President Trump justified the recent strikes on Iran by claiming the country is building missiles that could soon hit the U.S. homeland. However, multiple sources within the U.S. intelligence community dispute this, stating there is no evidence Iran has or is close to deploying missiles with that capability. The disconnect raises questions about the intelligence basis for the military escalation.
U.S. intelligence agencies currently assess that Iran possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. However, the longest-range missiles in its arsenal can travel up to 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers, which is sufficient to reach Israel and parts of Europe, but not the U.S. homeland. A 2025 unclassified assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) projected that Iran could develop a "militarily-viable" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2035 if it decides to pursue that capability. Multiple sources have indicated there has been no recent change in this intelligence assessment. Restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), expired in October 2023. This resolution had "called upon" Iran to refrain from activities related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The now-expired UN resolution did not outright prohibit missile development, and the original JCPOA itself did not include restrictions on Iran's missile program. For years, UN resolutions banned Iran from participating in any activities related to ballistic missiles and imposed a strict arms embargo. Iran's current missile arsenal includes the Shahab-3, with a range of about 900 km, and the Ghadr-1, which can reach approximately 1,600 km. It has also developed missiles like the Sejil, Emad, and Khorramshahr, with ranges between 1,300 and 2,500 kilometers. While Iran has consistently stated its missile program is for defensive deterrence, it has also recently developed hypersonic missiles which are harder to intercept. The program has historically received technological assistance from countries like North Korea, Russia, and China.
