Airlines Trim Schedules

U.S. airlines are cutting flights and slowing growth after a spring jet-fuel spike upended profit forecasts across the industry. (cnbc.com) Southwest said on April 22 that it expects second-quarter earnings of 40 cents to 50 cents a share, below analysts’ estimates, and kept its full-year 2026 outlook unchanged because fuel prices have been too volatile. The carrier said second-quarter fuel costs could run about $4.10 to $4.15 a gallon, up from $2.73 in the first quarter. (cnbc.com) American Airlines cut its 2026 earnings forecast on April 23 to a range from a 40-cent loss to $1.10 a share, down from the $1.70 to $2.70 range it gave in January. American said its jet-fuel bill could rise by more than $4 billion this year if second-quarter prices stay near $4 a gallon. (cnbc.com) (money.usnews.com) United said in March that it would cut more unprofitable flying over the next two quarters as it prepared for a prolonged period of high jet-fuel prices. Delta said on April 8 that it would “meaningfully reduce” capacity growth and keep a downward bias until the fuel environment improves. (cnbc.com) (news.delta.com) Alaska Air withdrew its full-year profit forecast on April 20 after fuel costs surged, and Chief Executive Ben Minicucci said the hit in the second quarter alone could reach $600 million. The company said it would trim capacity growth and pull back on off-peak flying. (cnbc.com) The pressure point is jet fuel, which is usually an airline’s biggest expense after labor. CNBC reported U.S. jet-fuel prices nearly doubled after the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, rising from $2.50 a gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 on April 2. (cnbc.com) Airlines cannot fully offset that jump because many tickets were sold weeks or months ago at lower fares. Reuters reported on April 23 that Delta expects to recover only 40 to 50 cents of every extra dollar it spends on fuel in the current quarter, with United seeing a similar gap before later improvement. (money.usnews.com) Carriers have also tried to pass through costs in other ways. Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, American and Alaska all raised bag fees after the attacks began, and some airlines have added fare increases or surcharges on top of schedule cuts. (cnbc.com 1) (cnbc.com 2) For travelers, the immediate effect is fewer flights in weaker markets and tighter pricing in peak periods. For airlines, the next test is whether fuel prices ease enough for summer demand to cover a cost shock that has already forced the biggest U.S. carriers to redraw their 2026 plans. (cnbc.com 1) (cnbc.com 2)