Singapore Growth Forecast Raised to 3.6%

The upgraded 3.6% growth forecast represents a significant jump from the 2.3% expansion predicted by economists in the previous December 2025 survey. This places the new projection near the upper end of the government's official forecast range of 2% to 4%. A major driver of this optimism is the robust outlook for the manufacturing sector, with its 2026 growth projection lifted to 4.3% from a previous 3.6%. Forecasts for wholesale and retail trade also saw a significant increase, doubling from 2% to 4%. The sustained global boom in artificial intelligence is a key factor underpinning this positive revision. Economists also point to resilient global growth and an easing of trade tensions as potential upsides. The forecast for non-oil domestic exports has more than doubled to 4.5%. While headline inflation is expected to remain steady, the forecast for core inflation—which excludes private transport and accommodation costs—has been revised slightly upward to 1.5% from 1.3%. Both figures remain within the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) official forecast range of 1% to 2%. This stronger economic outlook has shifted expectations regarding monetary policy. While a majority still anticipate the MAS will hold settings in its upcoming review, nearly half of the economists surveyed (47.4%) now foresee a tightening, a sharp increase from just 5.6% in the prior survey. The brighter forecast follows a stronger-than-expected performance at the end of 2025, with the economy expanding 6.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, significantly exceeding the 3.6% that respondents had predicted in the December survey. For the first quarter of 2026, growth is expected to be a strong 5.8%.