Fox Weather predicts heavy Memorial Day rain

Fox Weather said on May 17 that rain, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures could disrupt Memorial Day weekend plans across much of the United States. The outlet said a high-pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard and a disturbance moving out of the West could combine to spread wet weather from the South into the Northeast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its May 17 outlook for May 23-27, also forecast above-normal precipitation across most of the continental United States. The federal outlook differed from Fox Weather’s temperature framing in some regions, favoring above-normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 while pointing to below-normal temperatures in south-central Texas and northwestern Washington. ### Where did Fox Weather say the biggest holiday disruptions could show up? Fox Weather said multiple inches of rain were possible in cities including Houston, Nashville and New York City during the holiday weekend. The outlet said the wet pattern could dampen outdoor plans tied to the unofficial start of summer and raise concerns for people heading to beaches and other open-air gatherings. (foxweather.com) Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Atlanta were the airports Fox Weather singled out for close monitoring. The outlet said storms through the weekend could create problems for millions of Americans traveling for the long holiday. ### What weather setup is driving the forecast? Fox Weather said a high-pressure system anchored off the East Coast would funnel moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf into the holiday period. (foxweather.com) The outlet said an atmospheric disturbance moving east from the West across the Heartland would interact with that moisture and create a broad threat of heavy rain from the South to the Northeast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center used broader national language in its May 17 discussion. The agency said above-normal precipitation was likely over most of the continental United States because of a shortwave trough near the Southwest, a meandering baroclinic zone over the Southeast quarter of the country, and return flow around the Bermuda High that would support elevated dew points over the central and western United States. (foxweather.com) ### Does the federal forecast match Fox Weather on temperatures? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said above-normal temperatures were favored over most of the western, north-central and southeastern United States for May 23-27. The agency said the highest odds, above 60%, were over parts of the north-central and western United States. South-central Texas and northwestern Washington were the areas where NOAA said below-normal temperatures were favored because added cloud cover could hold daytime highs down. (forecast.weather.gov) Fox Weather, by contrast, said parts of the Northeast could see temperatures fall into the upper 60s as early as Thursday after an early-week stretch of summer-like warmth. ### How broad is NOAA’s precipitation signal? (forecast.weather.gov) NOAA’s May 17 6-10 day discussion said above-normal precipitation was likely over the remainder of the continental United States outside parts of the northwestern United States. The agency said the highest odds, above 60%, were in southern Texas, where it expected the forecast pattern to focus rainfall most strongly. The Climate Prediction Center’s interactive outlook for Saturday, May 23, through Wednesday, May 27 was updated on May 17. (foxweather.com) That product covers the core of the Memorial Day travel window and provides the federal government’s national probability outlook for above-, near- or below-normal temperature and precipitation. ### What other hazards are already on the map this week? The National Weather Service said on May 18 that severe storms, including very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds, were expected from the Great Lakes into the central and southern Plains. (forecast.weather.gov) The agency also said heavy late-season snow and cold temperatures were expected in the northern to central Rockies, while heat spread across the eastern United States. Those active hazards are separate from the Memorial Day weekend outlook, but they show that multiple weather regimes were already in place as forecasters looked ahead to May 23-25. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The next scheduled federal outlook window cited in NOAA’s May 17 discussion runs through May 27, while Fox Weather said travelers should keep checking forecasts for Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Atlanta as the holiday approaches. (foxweather.com) (weather.gov)