Legal and valuation clouds

The biggest artificial intelligence valuations now come with two extra variables: court risk at OpenAI and expectation risk at Anthropic. (openai.com) At OpenAI, Elon Musk’s lawsuit is still aimed at the company’s shift from its old capped-profit structure to a public benefit corporation, even after a judge refused to pause the change in March 2025. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers denied Musk’s request for a preliminary injunction but said the case should move quickly because of “potential for harm” if an unlawful conversion occurred. (gadgets360.com) OpenAI changed course on May 5, 2025, saying its nonprofit would keep control while its limited liability company would still convert into a public benefit corporation. The company said it made that decision after discussions with the attorneys general of Delaware and California. (openai.com) The legal fight did not end with that revision. On April 6, 2026, OpenAI asked the California and Delaware attorneys general to investigate what it called Musk’s “improper and anti-competitive behavior” before a trial set for April 2026. (reuters.com) Musk then widened the stakes again. Bloomberg reported on April 7, 2026, that he wanted damages paid to OpenAI’s nonprofit arm, wanted Sam Altman removed from his roles at OpenAI, and wanted a court order restoring OpenAI as a nonprofit research organization. (bloomberg.com) That matters for valuation math because OpenAI told investors in December 2024 that a new public benefit corporation would make it easier to raise the “hundreds of billions of dollars” needed for computing power. Reuters reported at the time that OpenAI’s $6.6 billion round at a $157 billion valuation was tied to removing the old profit cap within two years. (thestar.com.my) Anthropic shows the other side of the same market. On March 3, 2025, the company said it raised $3.5 billion at a $61.5 billion post-money valuation, with Lightspeed Venture Partners leading the round. (anthropic.com) By February 2026, Anthropic’s price tag had jumped again. Crunchbase reported a $30 billion Series G at a $380 billion post-money valuation, a round led by GIC and Coatue, while The Information said public-market investors were already debating whether an eventual OpenAI listing would outrun private-market assumptions. (news.crunchbase.com, theinformation.com) Those numbers help explain why employee expectations have become part of the story. When private staff start treating stock grants like near-public equity, tender offers and secondary sales can signal valuation pressure before any initial public offering filing appears. (news.crunchbase.com) The common thread is that investors are no longer pricing only models, revenue, and computing power. They are also pricing whether a company’s legal structure will hold up in court and whether internal owners expect public-market exits on private-market timelines. (openai.com, bloomberg.com)