Airlines slash thousands of flights

Airlines are cutting flights for the summer because the math changed fast. Cirium, an aviation data firm, said carriers have been revising near-term schedules after a doubling in jet fuel prices and disruptions tied to the Middle East. IATA, the airline industry’s main trade group, said jet fuel prices in the first quarter of 2026 rose 36% from a year earlier to an average of $124.7 per barrel. That combination is pushing airlines to trim less profitable flying, even as summer demand remains in place. ### How big are the cuts so far? Cirium said on April 16 that May 2026 capacity had been cut by around three percentage points, leaving planned growth at 3.4% over May 2025. The firm said April 2026 available seat kilometers were down 2.0% from a year earlier, after airlines kept adjusting schedules. The 20 largest airlines in Cirium’s sample had almost all reduced May schedules, with most cuts in a range of zero to five percentage points. (cirium.com) Cirium said the changes were visible across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, not just among carriers closest to the conflict zone. ### Why does fuel matter so much to flight schedules? (cirium.com) IATA said in a March analysis that jet fuel is one of airlines’ highest costs and that sudden price moves are harder to absorb than high prices alone. In its Q1 2026 chartbook, IATA said the escalation of conflict in the Middle East from late February drove a pronounced jump in crude and jet fuel prices, with supply fears centered on the Strait of Hormuz. (cirium.com) IATA said Q1 jet fuel prices averaged $124.7 per barrel and that the jet fuel crack spread widened to $43.5 per barrel. The group said supply concerns were especially acute in Asia and Europe because of their dependence on Middle Eastern crude and jet fuel imports. ### Which airlines have said they are trimming capacity? Delta Air Lines said on April 8 that “the recent fuel spike is currently impacting earnings.” Cirium said Delta had guided to flat year-on-year capacity in the second quarter of 2026, versus a then-current plan showing 2.7% growth. (iata.org) United Airlines said in first-quarter materials that it had “already begun adjusting its schedule for the rest of 2026” because of higher fuel prices. (iata.org) United said it expected capacity in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 to be flat to up about 2%, reflecting an expected five-point reduction versus its original plan. Ryanair also hinted it could trim schedules by 5% to 10% if jet fuel prices stayed at current levels, according to Cirium’s April analysis. (ir.delta.com) ### Does this mean demand is collapsing? IATA said on May 22 that bookings for June-to-September travel were still up 6% in March and April from the same period in 2025, despite what it called exceptionally high jet fuel prices and disruption from the war in Iran. (ir.united.com) That suggests airlines are cutting because costs and network constraints changed, not because travelers disappeared. IATA’s December 2025 industry outlook had projected 2026 airline net profit of $41 billion on revenue of $1.053 trillion, but that forecast assumed jet fuel at about $88 per barrel. (cirium.com) The current price environment is far above that baseline. ### What should travelers watch next? Summer 2026 schedules are still moving. Cirium said in April that “it appears extremely likely that more reductions are ahead,” and IATA continues to publish weekly jet fuel updates and monthly traffic data. (iata.org) Travelers looking at June, July and August trips will need to watch airline notifications, rebooked itineraries and updated schedules as carriers revise plans through the peak season. (cirium.com) (iata.org)