Tariff policy grows unpredictable
New arrangements and recent court decisions are making tariff policy more discretionary and less certain, with Britain noting possible exemptions for semiconductors and the U.S. Treasury suggesting higher reciprocal tariffs could return by July. The layered risk—headline rates, legal basis, and exemption processes—means firms cannot assume current tariff relief is permanent. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Tariff policy is getting harder to read, even for companies that already lived through the last round of trade fights. Britain now says a new arrangement with Washington could spare semiconductors from future United States tariffs, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said higher reciprocal rates could return by early July. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (bloomberg.com) The British Parliament’s House of Commons Library said most United Kingdom goods still face a 10% United States tariff, while steel, aluminium and derivative goods remain at 25% pending supply-chain conditions set by Washington. It said the new United Kingdom-United States deal also allows up to 100,000 British passenger vehicles into the United States at a 10% tariff and lets pharmaceuticals enter tariff-free. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) That same briefing said the deal “opens the possibility” of exemptions for semiconductors and some other goods from future United States tariffs. It also said the legal basis for several United States tariffs changed after a Supreme Court decision on February 20, 2026. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (supreme.justia.com) The legal fight turned on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law that lets a president respond to national emergencies. In *Learning Resources v. Trump*, the Supreme Court held on February 20 that the law did not authorize the president to impose tariffs. (supreme.justia.com) That ruling did not end the tariff story. Bessent said on April 14 in Washington that the administration could use Section 301 studies to put tariffs back at previous levels by the beginning of July. (bloomberg.com) (finance.yahoo.com) Section 301 is a different trade law: it allows the United States to investigate foreign trade practices and then impose duties after a formal process. That means the risk for importers is no longer only the tariff rate on paper, but also which statute the White House uses and whether a product can win an exemption. (ustr.gov) (bloomberg.com) Courts are still shaping the picture after the February ruling. The United States Court of International Trade said on March 4 that all importers of record who paid the now-invalid International Emergency Economic Powers Act duties were entitled to the benefit of the Supreme Court’s decision, and it later clarified refund eligibility on March 27. (sullcrom.com) (kelleydrye.com) A separate case is still moving through the same trade court. Reuters reported on April 10 that judges questioned whether Trump’s 10% tariff on most imports, which took effect on February 24, could be justified by a large trade deficit alone. (reuters.com) The White House has already shown how quickly these rates can move when it wants leverage. In 2025, it paused some reciprocal tariffs, extended deadlines, and reserved the right to raise or broaden duties in response to retaliation, including through orders tied to China and country-by-country negotiations. (whitehouse.gov 1) (whitehouse.gov 2) For manufacturers and retailers, the result is a tariff system with three moving parts at once: the announced rate, the court-tested legal authority behind it, and the exemption process that can change product by product. Relief that exists in April can still be rewritten by July. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (bloomberg.com)
