Yields up, mortgages tighter
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields are trading around 4.4% as global growth and oil worries push bond volatility higher. Mortgage pain continues at the consumer level — the 30‑year fixed is about 6.47% and lenders are noting higher borrowing costs and tight U.S. inventory even as UK approvals rose in February. (livemint.com) (finance.yahoo.com)
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield eased to 4.38% on March 30, 2026, after rising roughly 34 basis points over the past month. (tradingeconomics.com(tradingeconomics.com)) Bond traders have pinned the recent swings to an oil‑price shock tied to the Iran war that pushed crude above $100/barrel and re‑focused investors on inflation risk. (bloomberg.com(bloomberg.com)) Volatility jumped alongside the oil move: the CBOE VIX reached intraday readings above 30 in early March as equities and fixed‑income markets turned choppy, amplifying short‑term Treasury trading. (ainvest.com(ainvest.com)) Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaged 6.38% for the week ending March 26, 2026, up from 6.22% the prior week. (freddiemac.com(freddiemac.com)) That Freddie Mac average sits roughly 200 basis points above the 10‑year Treasury yield, widening the interest‑rate spread that borrowers face compared with benchmark government debt. (freddiemac.com(freddiemac.com); tradingeconomics.com(tradingeconomics.com)) Mortgage Bankers Association weekly data showed applications fell about 10.5% in the week ending March 20, 2026, with refinance activity plunging and purchase applications also under pressure. (mba.org(mba.org)) The National Association of Realtors reported existing‑home sales rose 1.7% in February to a 4.09 million annualized pace while unsold inventory increased to 1.29 million units, equal to 3.8 months’ supply. (nar.realtor(nar.realtor)) Bank of England statistics showed UK lenders approved 62,584 mortgages for house purchases in February 2026, up from 60,246 in January and slightly above Reuters’ economist consensus of about 61,250. (reuters.com(reuters.com))
