Colorado’s grim water outlook

Colorado finished winter with the lowest early-April mountain snowpack in the state’s record, and forecasters now expect a fraction of the usual spring runoff. (aspenjournalism.org) Snowpack is the water stored in mountain snow before it melts into rivers, reservoirs and canals. On April 9, the Natural Resources Conservation Service said Colorado’s statewide snow water equivalent was 22% of median after briefly reaching 26% following early-April storms. (publicnow.com) The agency said statewide snowpack fell from 60% of median on March 1 to 20% on April 1. March temperatures averaged about 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, and snow water equivalent dropped at an average rate of 0.25 inches a day during the fastest melt period. (publicnow.com) Colorado State University climatologist Russ Schumacher wrote on April 2 that March 2026 would finish as Colorado’s warmest March in 132 years, about 3 to 4 degrees warmer than any previous March statewide. He said many areas logged more than seven days warmer than any March day from 1951 through 2025. (climate.colostate.edu) That heat changed the timing of runoff as much as the total volume. The Natural Resources Conservation Service said March streamflows were already above median in much of Colorado because snow that usually melts from April through July had started entering rivers weeks early. (publicnow.com) The biggest downstream warning is Lake Powell. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center’s April 1 forecast projects April-through-July unregulated inflow to Powell at 1.4 million acre-feet, or 22% of average. (cbrfc.noaa.gov) That April-through-July forecast dropped by nearly 1 million acre-feet from the March outlook, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. The same report said the Bureau of Reclamation’s March study showed Powell could fall below 3,490 feet, the “power pool” elevation where Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydropower, by the end of December 2026. (sltrib.com) Lake Powell matters far beyond Colorado because the Colorado River system serves seven basin states and Mexico. The Bureau of Reclamation says the basin is a critical water source for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, and federal officials have said it provides water for about 40 million people and roughly 5.5 million acres of farmland. (usbr.gov; usbr.gov) Federal managers entered water year 2026 planning to release 7.48 million acre-feet from Lake Powell, but Reclamation says that volume may be reduced if hydrologic conditions worsen under the 2024 operating rules. The agency has already been holding back 598,000 acre-feet in Powell from December through April to help protect a target elevation of 3,525 feet. (usbr.gov) Colorado’s snowpack record goes back to 1941, and local reporting said this year broke that mark before the main runoff season even began. The state can still get April snow, but water managers are now planning around an early melt, reduced summer flows and a much thinner cushion in the river system’s biggest reservoir. (denverpost.com; aspenjournalism.org)