UK student numbers have peaked

HESA said on January 27 that total UK higher education enrolments fell for a second straight year in 2024/25, adding official backing to a market view that overall student growth is no longer uniform across Britain. The statistics agency said total enrolments stood at 2,863,180 in 2024/25, down 1% from 2,900,240 a year earlier, with a wider measure including higher-education students at further-education providers at 2,993,950, also down 1%. Home Office data published last week pointed in the same direction for overseas demand. The government said 383,455 sponsored study visas were granted in the year ending June 2026, down 11% from the previous year and 41% below the peak in the year ending June 2023; main-applicant grants fell 12% to 365,868. (hesa.ac.uk) That combination does not show a collapse in student housing demand. It does show that the old assumption of broad national growth is harder to defend, and that operators are more exposed to differences by city, course mix and student origin. That reading is consistent with the recent X post that argued UK domestic student numbers have peaked and overseas enrolments are falling. (gov.uk) ### If overall numbers are down, where is the pressure easing? HESA said the overall fall in 2024/25 was driven by a 10% decrease in international entrants to postgraduate taught courses. The agency described the decline as the main reason total student numbers fell for a second consecutive year. UCAS data, however, show the undergraduate picture is different. (hesa.ac.uk) The admissions service said a record 328,390 UK 18-year-olds had applied by June 30, 2025, up 2.2% from the same point a year earlier, and 138,460 international undergraduate applicants had applied through UCAS, also up 2.2%. In January 2026, UCAS separately said the number of UK 18-year-old applicants by the equal consideration deadline had risen 4.8% year-on-year to 338,940, reflecting a larger age cohort. (hesa.ac.uk) The split matters because undergraduate demand and postgraduate taught demand do not hit the same housing markets in the same way. A city with a large undergraduate intake can still see strong first-year accommodation demand even if postgraduate and international cohorts soften. That is an inference from the composition of the official data. (ucas.com) ### Does “domestic numbers have peaked” fit the official data? UCAS data do not show a simple peak in school-leaver demand. The service said both January 2026 applicants and June 2025 applicants from UK 18-year-olds reached record levels, driven by demographic growth rather than a higher application rate. (hesa.ac.uk) The better-supported version of the claim is narrower. HESA’s full-system enrolment data show total higher-education numbers are down, while UCAS shows domestic undergraduate applications remain firm, especially among 18-year-olds. That means “domestic numbers have peaked” is not established across the whole market from the latest official releases, but broader student-count growth has clearly slowed. (ucas.com) ### Why do purpose-built beds still look resilient? The Home Office said study visas remain well above pre-2019 levels even after the recent decline, and HESA still records nearly 2.9 million higher-education enrolments across UK providers. That leaves a large base of demand for accommodation even in a softer market. (hesa.ac.uk) Savills said in its UK PBSA spotlight that falling supply of houses in multiple occupation was creating opportunity for purpose-built student accommodation, citing more than 300,000 buy-to-let mortgage redemptions since 2017 as regulation and tax changes made private-landlord investment less attractive. Knight Frank has also continued to publish market updates tracking investment and supply in the sector, while StuRents said this month that it updates planning data across more than 45 locations to monitor the PBSA pipeline. (gov.uk) ### So what should operators watch next? The next evidence points are already scheduled in the normal data cycle. The Office for Students published 2024-25 student numbers for regulatory purposes on June 24, 2026, and says current student-number data are available through its download page; UCAS and HESA will publish the next rounds of applicant and enrolment data as the 2026/27 cycle develops. (savills.co.uk) The Home Office said monthly entry-clearance visa applications remain the most up-to-date read on study-route demand. For operators in halls and PBSA, those releases, alongside UCAS applicant data and HESA enrolments, will show whether demand is still being held up by domestic undergraduates even as overseas and postgraduate flows weaken. (gov.uk) (officeforstudents.org.uk)