U.S. share of Brazil trade falls

Amcham Brasil said on July 8 that the United States’ share of Brazil’s total trade fell to a record-low 11.1% in the first half of 2026, as exports to the U.S. dropped 13% and imports from the U.S. fell 12.5%. The figures, published in the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil’s trade monitor, showed Washington losing ground in one of Latin America’s biggest markets while China widened its lead as Brazil’s top commercial partner. Brazilian exports to the U.S. totaled $17.4 billion in January-June, while imports from the U.S. were $19 billion, according to the report. Here’s the thread version of what matters. 1/ The headline number is 11.1%. That was the U.S. share of Brazil’s total trade in the first half of 2026, the lowest on record, according to Amcham Brasil’s January-June monitor. Brazilian exports to the U.S. fell 13% to $17.4 billion, and imports from the U.S. fell 12.5% to $19 billion. (valorinternational.globo.com) 2/ The export number is even starker. The U.S. took 9.4% of Brazilian exports in the first half, the lowest share for any first half since the series began in 1997, according to Amcham Brasil data cited by Valor International and other reports following the release. 3/ The timing matters because the drop comes about a year into Donald Trump’s renewed tariff campaign. (valorinternational.globo.com) Amcham Brasil has separately tracked repeated declines in Brazilian sales to the U.S. in 2026 and linked part of that weakness to U.S. surcharge measures affecting a significant share of Brazil’s export basket. 4/ China is the other side of this story. Reports on the Amcham data said China extended its lead as Brazil’s top trading partner while the U.S. share slipped, underscoring how Brazil’s trade flows are tilting further toward Asia as U.S. tariff policy hardens. 5/ This is not just a Brazil story. (valorinternational.globo.com) A July 8 New York Fed post said many firms that paid tariffs are still planning additional price increases. The Fed’s survey found 47% of service firms and 44% of manufacturers that directly paid tariffs expected to raise prices further. 6/ That gives the Brazil numbers a broader context: tariffs are not only changing bilateral trade flows, they are still feeding through into U.S. prices. (valorinternational.globo.com) Reuters, in a July 8 report carried by U.S. News, said 22 Democratic state attorneys general opposed proposed tariffs of up to 12.5% on 59 countries and the European Union. (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org) 7/ The attorneys general said the administration was using forced-labor allegations as a pretext to restore broad tariffs that courts had already struck down, according to the Reuters report. Their filing adds a legal and political challenge alongside the economic one. (money.usnews.com) 8/ For Brazil, the practical effect is visible in the composition of trade. Amcham Brasil’s earlier 2026 monitors showed tariffed goods falling more sharply than non-tariffed goods, suggesting the pressure is concentrated in sectors directly hit by U.S. trade measures rather than spread evenly across all exports. 9/ What to watch next: Amcham Brasil’s next trade monitor and any new U.S. tariff decisions affecting Brazilian goods. (money.usnews.com) On the U.S. side, the tariff debate is also moving through public comments and legal challenges, with the U.S. Trade Representative and the coalition of 22 Democratic attorneys general now named participants in the next round. (liga.amcham.com.br) (mkt.amcham.com.br)