Hiring: Less but Better

Goldman Sachs economists Megan Peters and Joseph Briggs published a client note on March 17, 2026, characterizing the US labor market as entering an era of “low hiring, low firing.” (proactiveinvestors.co.uk)) Their analysis finds the fall in overall separations since 2019 is driven overwhelmingly by declines in short‑tenure separations — jobs ending within one to two quarters — and that in the US those declining short‑term separations explain roughly 84% of the drop in total separations. (proactiveinvestors.com)) Goldman’s research links part of that improvement in match quality to firms adopting AI and automation; the bank’s broader work estimates roughly 6–7% of workers could be displaced during the multi‑year AI adoption window and suggests wide enterprise uptake over about a decade. (goldmansachs.com)) Practical evidence of AI tightening hiring: large financial firms including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have publicly deployed AI tools that reduce headcount growth by automating candidate screening and workflow, changing how many roles are opened and filled. (cnbc.com)) Boutique and mid‑market consulting firms typically operate with teams ranging from several dozen to a few hundred people and recruit narrowly by practice area, which means a single strategic‑or‑ops hire can shift capacity on client engagements and revenue allocation materially. (managementconsulted.com)) Job postings and recruiting guides for boutique strategy roles emphasize measurable impact, analytical rigor, process‑improvement experience, and systems thinking — skills that employers now screen for more tightly as they hire fewer but higher‑fit candidates. (indeed.com)) Goldman also warns the pattern could produce a “jobless recovery” scenario — GDP growth without a commensurate rebound in hiring — which would sustain pressure on boutiques to get every hire right and to lean more on contractors or AI‑enabled capacity instead of broad headcount increases. (prismnews.com))