China’s global push
China is accelerating a broad global push — from a possible yuan reserve‑currency rise to tougher trade pressure and a tech‑heavy five‑year plan. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff says the yuan could become a reserve currency within five years, Beijing has opened two new probes into U.S. trade practices, and the 2026–2030 Five‑Year Plan doubles down on AI, cybersecurity and digital infrastructure as strategic priorities. (scmp.com) (polyestertime.com) (pmldaily.com)
The IMF’s COFER database shows renminbi holdings in official foreign-exchange reserves were around 1.93% of allocated reserves in 2025 Q3, underscoring how small RMB reserve shares remain today. (data.imf.org) China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) handled ¥175.49 trillion in 2024, a 43% year‑on‑year volume increase that Beijing cites as evidence of growing RMB settlement activity. (fxcintel.com) CIPS’s operator reports 193 direct participants and 1,573 indirect participants and lists a 2025 “annual business volume” figure near ¥180 trillion, showing expanded institutional links for yuan clearing. (cips.com.cn) The People’s Bank of China reported 31 bilateral currency‑swap agreements in force with foreign central banks, with a total scale of about ¥4.16 trillion as of the PBOC’s public reporting. (english.news.cn) Among recent swap renewals, PBOC extended a bilateral local currency swap with the European Central Bank valued at RMB 350 billion (about €45 billion), reflecting Beijing’s push to deepen direct currency arrangements with major partners. (en.jiemian.com) China’s Commerce Ministry announced on March 27, 2026 that it had opened two reciprocal trade‑barrier investigations targeting US measures said to harm global production and supply chains and to impede trade in green products. (en.chinadiplomacy.org.cn) Chinese officials and several outlets said the probes are expected to run up to six months and that Beijing may adopt countermeasures based on the findings, framing the investigations as a formal, time‑bounded response. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) The official 15th Five‑Year Plan outline was adopted in March 2026 and lists 109 major projects for 2026–2030 while embedding digital and AI priorities across multiple chapters, including a chapter explicitly on “enhancing computing power, algorithm, and efficient data supply.” (english.www.gov.cn) Independent reporting and analyses note the plan mentions “artificial intelligence” more than 50 times and elevates cybersecurity and digital‑infrastructure build‑out as state strategic priorities for the 2026–2030 period. (aiwire.ai)
