Tech layoffs swell sublease supply — but AI firms snap up specialty space

Oracle began executing mass layoffs on March 31, 2026, with analysts estimating cuts of roughly 20,000–30,000 jobs—about 12–18% of a ~162,000 global workforce—to free cash for a multibillion‑dollar AI data‑center buildout. (bloomberg.com) San Francisco’s sublease pool reached multi‑million‑square‑foot scale (previous reports cited about 7.1 million sq ft of sublease space) but has shown early quarterly declines as AI upstarts take larger blocks of space. (therealdeal.com) Perplexity completed an ~81,000‑sqft sublease at 181 Fremont (and previously explored taking up to ~100,000 sqft across six floors), while Databricks inked a full‑building lease for a newly delivered 305,000‑sqft property in Sunnyvale—transactions that illustrate large‑format demand for innovation tenants. (news.theregistrysf.com) Developers broke ground on a 473,000‑sqft Fremont industrial campus specifically pitched to AI occupiers, and market analyses flag power capacity, lab‑ready floor plates and freight access as the constraining features for R&D and robotics users. (therealdeal.com) CBRE’s Q4 2025 figures show U.S. gateway office asking rents rose 1.9% year‑over‑year even as San Francisco’s vacancy rate has hovered near a roughly 36% peak, underscoring a bifurcation between scarce, high‑quality product and surplus commodity offices. (cbre.com) Cushman reported national sublease availabilities down about 20% since early 2024 even as lending flows into stabilized Bay Area office assets picked up after roughly $5.89 billion of CMBS issuance to San Francisco offices in 2024. (cushmanwakefield.com) Brokers and owners are channeling marketing and outreach toward AI, robotics and cloud tenants concentrated in SoMa and the South Bay, emphasizing listings with upgraded power infrastructure, freight/loading capacity, and short‑term move‑in readiness—attributes that closed the recent string of large sublease and R&D deals. (hoodline.com)