Iran Strikes Could Destabilize Entire Gulf
The recent attacks on Iran could trigger a "cascading effect, destabilizing... the entire Gulf region," according to an analysis by Dr. Maryam Fatima. She warns that Iran is likely to use asymmetric retaliation through proxy groups or cyberwarfare, which could disrupt global energy supplies if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a flashpoint.
The recent joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, dubbed "Operation Epic Fury," targeted multiple locations across Iran, including in the capital, Tehran. Among the reported targets were the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. In response, Iran launched missiles at U.S. military bases in the region, with explosions reported in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran's strategy of asymmetric warfare often involves its extensive network of proxy groups across the Middle East. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria. These groups allow Iran to exert influence and retaliate against adversaries without engaging in direct conventional warfare. Financially, Iran provides significant support to these proxies, with estimates of $700 million annually to Hezbollah and around $100 million to Palestinian groups like Hamas. This backing has enabled groups like Hezbollah to amass a formidable arsenal, reportedly including over 150,000 rockets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force are responsible for training and equipping these allied militias. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran, is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Approximately 20-25% of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait daily, making it a vital artery for the global economy. Any disruption in this shipping lane could lead to significant increases in global energy prices. In addition to proxy forces, Iran has developed significant cyberwarfare capabilities, viewing it as a key component of its "soft war" strategy. Iranian cyber activities, often conducted by groups affiliated with the IRGC and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, have targeted government and critical infrastructure in rival nations. These operations range from espionage and data theft to disruptive attacks using malware like the "Shamoon" data-wiping program.
