Autonomy and Defence Demand
- Merlin Labs says future air power will be autonomous, citing recent conflicts that favor small and medium autonomous platforms. - The U.S. has used over half of its Patriot and THAAD missile stockpiles in recent conflicts. - Rising defence spending and supply stress are increasing demand for autonomy, sensors, and aerospace suppliers. ( )
Cheap autonomous aircraft are moving from experiment to procurement target as the U.S. burns through expensive missile defenses in multiple wars. (cnbc.com) Merlin Labs chief executive Matt George said on April 23 that small and medium autonomous aircraft have “dominated” the wars in Iran and Ukraine, where drones are doing reconnaissance and strike missions that once required larger crewed aircraft. CNBC reported the U.S. defense budget has allocated $75 billion for autonomous platforms and drones amid what George called a Western “refocus.” (cnbc.com) The stockpile math is pushing the same shift. The Kyiv Independent, citing a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis published April 21, reported the U.S. and allies have used 1,060 to 1,430 Patriot interceptors out of a prewar supply of 2,330, and 190 to 290 THAAD interceptors out of 360, during the nearly two-month war on Iran. (kyivindependent.com) A Patriot or THAAD interceptor is a defensive missile meant to knock down incoming threats, but recent fighting has forced those systems to chase far cheaper drones. Ukraine has complained that scarce Patriot rounds are being spent against Iranian-designed Shahed drones while Russia keeps launching larger salvos. (kyivindependent.com) That imbalance is showing up in company guidance and budget talk. Northrop Grumman said this week that defense spending could rise to about 5% of U.S. gross domestic product if the administration’s proposed fiscal 2027 plan is enacted, up from around 3% in recent years. (benzinga.com) Northrop reported $9.881 billion in first-quarter 2026 sales, $9.8 billion in awards, and a $96 billion backlog, and said it is expanding annual B-21 production capacity by 25%. The company also pointed to strong demand for missile defense systems and advanced interceptors. (benzinga.com) Merlin is pitching autonomy as a way to upgrade existing aircraft instead of waiting for entirely new fleets. On its website, the company says its “Merlin Pilot” is aircraft-agnostic software and says it has a $105 million U.S. Special Operations Command contract ceiling tied to autonomy work on the C-130J. (merlinlabs.com) The supply side is still slow. The Kyiv Independent reported that PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors can take 29 months from contract award before manufacturing even begins, while Raytheon’s planned Patriot GEM-T production expansion in Germany is not yet operating. (kyivindependent.com) Recent wars are forcing the same procurement question from two directions at once: how to buy more interceptors faster, and how to field more aircraft that are cheap enough to lose. (cnbc.com)
