Vermont’s immigration drop

Vermont’s recent population slide is colliding with a sharp drop in immigration, cutting off one of the state’s few remaining sources of growth. (vtdigger.org) U.S. Census estimates cited by Vermont Public show the state lost more than 1,800 residents in the year ending June 2025, the largest population decline by percentage of any state. Vermont also lost more than 700 residents to domestic out-migration in that period. (vermontpublic.org) International migration had been cushioning those losses, but that cushion shrank fast: Vermont gained just over 600 residents from abroad between 2024 and 2025, down from more than 1,000 a year in each of the prior three years. VTDigger reported that the slowdown tracked a national drop tied to tighter federal immigration policy and increased deportations. (vtdigger.org) That shift lands hard in a state where deaths already outnumber births. Vermont Public reported that Vermont recorded the fewest births of any state last year, leaving the state dependent on new arrivals from other states or other countries to hold population steady. (vermontpublic.org) Recent national data helps explain why Vermont officials and local reporters are focused on immigration. Visual Capitalist, citing Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies data, reported that immigration accounted for 100% of Vermont’s population growth from 2021 to 2025, with a net gain of 1,698 people over that span. (visualcapitalist.com) The numbers are small in absolute terms, but immigrants already play an outsized role in Vermont’s economy. A 2025 Vermont profile from the Vera Institute of Justice said 28,900 immigrants live in the state, about 4% of the population, and 20,300 immigrant workers make up 6% of the labor force. (vera.org) That same profile said immigrant-led households in Vermont earned $1.7 billion and paid $171.3 million in state and local taxes in 2023. It also found that 71% of Vermont immigrants participate in the labor force, compared with 64% of U.S.-born residents in the state. (vera.org) Schools are part of the same math. The Vermont Agency of Education says enrollment data is tracked statewide, and VTDigger reported in February that overall public-school enrollment is still declining even as some districts face rising special-education needs. (education.vermont.gov, vtdigger.org) Refugee arrivals had helped offset those losses in some communities. Vermont Public reported in January 2024 that more than 500 refugees and people with similar status resettled in Vermont in 2023, and agencies had planned to raise that to roughly 600 before housing shortages got in the way. (vermontpublic.org) Federal data shows why local agencies watch those flows so closely: the Office of Homeland Security Statistics tracks refugee arrivals, asylum grants, naturalizations and other immigration measures by state. In Vermont, those streams now sit at the center of debates over labor shortages, school consolidation and whether a shrinking state can keep its tax base intact. (ohss.dhs.gov)