Goldman projects $415 billion robotaxi market

Goldman Sachs Research said on April 30 that the global robotaxi market could reach about $415 billion in 2035, a forecast that was recirculated by market commentators on May 19. The bank said the estimate covers the global robotaxi market, with the U.S. portion alone projected at $48 billion in 2035. Goldman also said the broader autonomous-vehicle sector — including hardware, software and services — could generate about $2 trillion in revenue in 2035. The figures came from a Goldman Sachs Research note by analyst Mark Delaney published on the firm’s website. ### Where does the $415 billion figure come from? Goldman Sachs published the $415 billion estimate in an April 30 article titled “Robotaxis Are Forecast to Become a $400 Billion Market in 2035.” The article said Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the global robotaxi market to reach roughly $415 billion in 2035 and estimated the U.S. market at $19 billion in 2030 and $48 billion in 2035. (goldmansachs.com) Mark Delaney, identified by Goldman as an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, wrote that deployments are expanding across the United States, China and newer markets in Europe and the Middle East. Goldman attributed that acceleration to improving safety records and stronger customer demand. ### What does Goldman include in the broader $2 trillion ecosystem? (goldmansachs.com) Goldman Sachs said the $2 trillion figure refers to the “full scope” of the autonomous-vehicle sector in 2035. The bank said that includes robotaxis, consumer vehicles with advanced autonomy, autonomous trucks, delivery robots, software subscriptions and digital services. (goldmansachs.com) Goldman also said not all of that $2 trillion would represent new spending, a caveat that distinguishes the broader ecosystem number from the narrower robotaxi market estimate. The article did not present the $2 trillion as robotaxi revenue alone. ### What assumptions sit behind the forecast? Goldman Sachs said the global commercial AV robotaxi fleet could grow from roughly 7,000 vehicles last year to about 6 million in 2035. (goldmansachs.com) The bank also estimated that revenue tied specifically to AI technology, including virtual-driver software and consumer autonomy subscriptions, could rise to $300 billion in 2035. The firm said cost declines are central to the model. Goldman estimated that total cost of goods sold per mile for a vertically integrated AV rideshare operator in the United States could fall below $1 by 2035, helped by lower vehicle depreciation, falling insurance premiums and lower remote-operator labor costs per mile. ### How does this compare with Goldman’s earlier view? (goldmansachs.com) Goldman Sachs said in a July 3, 2025 article that more than 1,500 robotaxis were already operating commercially in five U.S. cities and projected that number would rise to about 35,000 by 2030. At that point, Goldman estimated AVs would generate $7 billion in annual revenue and capture about 8% of the U.S. rideshare market. (goldmansachs.com) The April 2026 update raised Goldman’s U.S. robotaxi market outlook for 2030 to $19 billion from a prior estimate of $7 billion. In the same 2025 article, Delaney wrote that the investor focus had shifted from whether the technology works to how fast it can scale and how large the market can become. ### What other numbers did Goldman highlight? (goldmansachs.com) Goldman Sachs said autonomous trucking could become cheaper per mile than human-driven trucks in the United States in 2028. The bank projected the global AV trucking market could reach $560 billion in 2035. Goldman also estimated gross margins of 30% to 50% for a vertically integrated robotaxi operator, implying a global gross profit pool of about $150 billion in 2035. (goldmansachs.com) Over the next decade, cumulative gross profits from robotaxis alone could total about $440 billion, according to Delaney. Goldman’s latest public roadmap is contained in its April 30 research article, which names robotaxis, AV trucks, consumer autonomy software and delivery robots as the next milestones in its 2035 model. (goldmansachs.com)