Oil above $100 a barrel

Oil is back above $100 a barrel, and that number matters because it is not just a market headline. It is the price of moving almost everything. Brent crude was around $108.56 on April 6, while WTI was around $110.65, after a violent run-up that pushed both benchmarks to their highest levels in years. The move has been fast enough that even the usual lag between oil markets and consumer prices is starting to look short. (markets.ft.com) This spike did not come from a booming global economy. It came from war and from the narrow waterway that the oil market fears most. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent had already settled at $94 a barrel on March 9, up about 50% from the start of the year, after military action in the Middle East disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shut in some regional production. That is why the current price matters more than the exact daily tick. The market is trading a supply shock, not a growth story. (eia.gov) That also explains why prices can stay high even when forecasters think they will eventually fall. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said Brent should remain above $95 a barrel through the next two months before dropping below $80 later in 2026, but only under an assumption that disrupted transit and shut-in production gradually ease. The agency was explicit about the fragility of that forecast. It depends on conflict fading and oil flows resuming. If that does not happen, the path changes. (eia.gov) Markets are already betting on that possibility. A prediction market contract tied to April oil prices showed traders assigning high odds to even steeper moves, including roughly a one-third chance of $130 in one recent snapshot, while the card’s cited update put the probability near 51%. Prediction markets are not the same thing as futures curves or official forecasts, and they should not be mistaken for hard evidence. But they do show how much fear is now embedded in the price of crude. (newsbreak.com) The first place that fear shows up in daily life is not always the gas pump. It is often jet fuel. EIA data show the U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price jumped from $2.262 a gallon in February 2026 to $3.685 in March 2026. That is a one-month surge of more than 60%. IATA’s jet fuel monitor also shows refiners’ average aviation fuel prices climbing sharply, which means airlines are paying more before many travelers have fully felt it in ticket prices. (eia.gov) Airlines cannot dodge that bill for long because fuel is one of their biggest costs, and unlike labor or aircraft leases, it can explode in a matter of days. Recent reporting shows some carriers have already faced jet fuel shortages and cancellations as the war-driven disruption spread through supply chains. Even when flights keep operating, the economics change fast. Marginal routes get harder to justify. Discounts disappear. Fees that looked temporary start to stick. (businessinsider.com) That is the real meaning of oil above $100. It is not just a commodity crossing a round number. It is a tax on movement, imposed by geopolitics and collected in small increments across the economy. On April 6, Brent was still above $108, and Gulf Coast jet fuel was still sitting at $3.685 a gallon. (markets.ft.com)