Markets price out April rate cut
Investors assign a 0% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the April FOMC meeting, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool cited in recent market coverage. At the same time, Bank of America still projects two rate cuts in 2026 despite rising inflation and what analysts describe as hawkish signals from the Fed. (bitcoinethereumnews.com; thestreet.com)
Traders are no longer betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut at the central bank’s April 28-29 meeting. (investing.com) The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision is due at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, April 29, after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that starts April 28. The committee held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on March 18. (federalreserve.gov; cnbc.com) Bank of America is still forecasting two rate cuts in 2026, even after stronger inflation data and a Federal Reserve pause in March. The bank also sees the 10-year Treasury yield ending 2026 in a 4.0% to 4.25% range, according to market coverage published in January. (thestreet.com) Rate-cut odds move with futures prices, which are contracts tied to where traders think the federal funds rate will be after each meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch tool and similar trackers translate those prices into implied probabilities for a hold, a cut, or a hike. (investing.com; federalreserve.gov) The inflation backdrop turned tougher on April 10, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.9% in March from the prior month. The 12-month inflation rate accelerated to 3.3%. (bls.gov) Federal Reserve officials were already signaling caution in March. In its March 18 statement, the central bank said inflation “remains somewhat elevated” and kept language saying it would adjust policy if risks threatened its goals. (federalreserve.gov) Minutes released on April 8 showed policymakers still saw rate cuts later in 2026 as possible, but they were weighing higher inflation risks tied to the war in Iran and energy prices. Reuters reported that split left officials balancing slower growth risks against the chance inflation stays high. (usnews.com; msn.com) That leaves investors focused on the gap between near-term pricing and year-end forecasts. Markets have effectively ruled out an April cut, while Bank of America is still looking for easing later in 2026 if inflation cools enough for the Federal Reserve to move. (investing.com; thestreet.com)
