Ukraine reports major gains since August 2024

Ukrainian forces have made localized gains along parts of the front in recent weeks, but the clearest available evidence points to a gradual shift rather than a single breakthrough. The Institute for the Study of War said on May 20 that Ukrainian forces “appear to be regaining the tactical initiative in different sectors of the frontline” and had made their most significant gains since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. CBC News reported on May 22 from the front that Ukraine had been recapturing some territory and stalling Russian forces in other areas, while cautioning that drone warfare has made it harder to determine who controls ground in the expanding “grey zone” between the armies. Reuters images distributed with that report showed Ukrainian troops near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia region on May 20 and near Donetsk region on May 18. (criticalthreats.org) ### Where are the reported gains showing up? Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts are among the areas cited by outside analysts tracking recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Poland’s OSW Centre for Eastern Studies said on May 19 that Ukrainian forces had carried out counterattacks on several fronts, regaining some positions in the grey zone and expanding it at Russia’s expense in those regions. (cbc.ca) Kostyantynivka in Donetsk region remains one of the most active sectors. CBC quoted a Ukrainian officer from the 28th Mechanized Brigade’s drone battalion as saying Russian forces were still trying to push toward the city center through daily small-group infiltrations, while Ukrainian units were striking them every day. ### Why are analysts being careful about the word “gains”? (osw.waw.pl) The main reason is that control on the ground is harder to define than before. CBC reported that drones saturating the airspace have widened the “grey zone” in some areas from roughly three to five kilometers to 15 to 20 kilometers, making it difficult for either side to move troops or heavy equipment without being detected and hit. (cbc.ca) ISW made a similar point on May 2 when it said Russian infiltration tactics had complicated year-on-year comparisons of territorial change. The think tank said Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, the first monthly net loss of territory it had assessed for Russia since Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk incursion, but added that infiltration areas do not equal firm control of terrain. (cbc.ca) ### How unusual is this compared with the past year? April 2026 was the first month since August 2024 in which ISW assessed that Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss in the Ukrainian theater. ISW said Russian forces had seized 1,443.35 square kilometers over the six months from November 2025 through April 2026, down from 2,368.38 square kilometers in the comparable period a year earlier. (understandingwar.org) March and February had already shown earlier signs of a shift. Ukrainian and Ukrainian-aligned reporting cited President Volodymyr Zelensky and commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi as saying Ukraine had liberated more territory than it lost in February, and later that hundreds of square kilometers had been retaken since the start of 2026, particularly in southern sectors. Those claims should be read alongside the wider caveat that battlefield mapping remains contested. (understandingwar.org) ### What should readers watch next to judge whether this is lasting? Daily map updates from ISW, DeepState and other conflict trackers will matter more than isolated social-media posts. ISW said on May 20 that Ukraine’s intensified strike campaign against Russian logistics, equipment and manpower since early 2026 had likely supported recent advances, and that further counterattacks in vulnerable sectors could continue to inhibit Russian offensive operations. (kyivindependent.com) May 22 reporting from the front did not describe a verified operational breakthrough, and no authoritative public map showed a sudden large collapse of Russian lines. What the available reporting does show is a pattern of localized Ukrainian counterattacks, slower Russian advances, and a battlefield where confirmation still trails the fighting. (cbc.ca) (criticalthreats.org)