Russian Offensive Operations Continue Near Belarus Border

Russia's offensive activities include intensified cross-border assaults in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, utilizing small, fast-moving infantry groups to probe for weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses. These attacks, which increased significantly through January and February 2026, aim to stretch Ukrainian forces and create a "buffer zone" along the international border. A key element of the offensive involves leveraging Belarusian territory and infrastructure for drone operations. Since the latter half of 2025, Russia has deployed signal repeaters and used Belarusian civilian cell towers to route its attack drones, significantly extending their range to hit targets in Ukraine's northern and western regions, including energy and railway facilities. This reliance on technology from Belarusian territory was confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence and a months-long cyber operation that infiltrated Russian drone operator systems. The operation, which concluded in February 2026, revealed flight paths and internal chats, allowing Ukrainian forces to more effectively counter the drone threats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited this assistance as a reason for imposing new sanctions on Alyaksandr Lukashenka on February 18, 2026. Concurrently, Belarus has been conducting its own military readiness checks, including snap inspections and the call-up of reservists for drills in regions near the Ukrainian border since mid-February 2026. While these exercises are described as routine by some analysts, their scale and timing are viewed as a form of psychological pressure and a potential signal to NATO. Ukrainian officials have noted a shift in Russian tactics in the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv, with a decreased intensity of infantry attacks and an increasing reliance on drone and artillery strikes. This aligns with the strategy of using Belarus as a launchpad for remote attacks rather than assembling a large ground force for a direct invasion from the north.