Iran Retaliates After Khamenei Assassination

Ali Khamenei was only the second Supreme Leader in the history of the Islamic Republic, having held the position since the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. The Supreme Leader has the final say in all major state matters, serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and controlling the judiciary, state media, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to Iran's constitution, in the event of the leader's death, a temporary council made up of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council assumes his duties. An 88-member body of clerics known as the Assembly of Experts is then tasked with selecting a permanent successor as soon as possible. Potential successors who have been discussed include Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, though this is controversial due to the regime's opposition to hereditary rule. Other names floated include judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and former President Ebrahim Raisi, before his death in a 2024 helicopter crash. The missile strikes utilized a fraction of what U.S. intelligence calls the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, estimated at over 3,000 missiles. Iran's arsenal includes short and medium-range missiles like the Shahab-3 and Sejjil, with ranges capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers away, covering all of the Middle East and parts of Europe. The attacks on Israel mark a direct escalation of a decades-long "shadow war." Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran under the Shah was an ally and the second Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel. After the revolution, Tehran severed all ties and began funding anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, leading to a long-running proxy conflict. The strikes on Saudi Arabia and the UAE target long-standing regional rivals. Relations with Saudi Arabia have been hostile since 1979, with the two powers backing opposite sides in conflicts across the region. The UAE has a more complex relationship, balancing political tensions and territorial disputes with extensive trade ties and a large Iranian expatriate community in Dubai. U.S.-Iran relations have been fraught since the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew Iran's prime minister and the 1979 revolution that led to the U.S. embassy hostage crisis. Formal diplomatic ties were severed in 1980, and the two nations have since engaged in decades of proxy conflicts and standoffs over Iran's nuclear program.