Trader Koroush: 'This Cycle Is Exposing Weaknesses'
In a recent podcast, professional trader Koroush argued that while the last bull market made many feel like geniuses, the current cycle is revealing flawed strategies. He noted that among successful traders he knows, "not a single one of them had made their fortune predicting tops or catching bottoms." The host characterized the current environment as a test of whether people are "actually investing or just panic trading with better vocabulary."
- Koroush AK's trading philosophy centers on disciplined, systematic approaches, contrasting with the "gambling" mindset he sees in many retail participants who jump into trades based on social media hype without a clear strategy or risk management. He advocates for separating trading, which requires active management and a defined edge, from long-term investing, which benefits from a more passive, emotionless strategy like dollar-cost averaging. - A critical mistake in the current market is the over-reliance on extreme leverage in perpetual futures, which led to over $154 billion in forced liquidations in 2025. This high-leverage environment creates cascading liquidations from relatively small price movements, punishing traders who lack a disciplined risk-management framework. - The influx of institutional investors is a significant factor in this market cycle, contributing to increased market stability and liquidity but also changing the market's structure. Their participation has strengthened the correlation between crypto and traditional equity markets, particularly in response to U.S. monetary policy, a factor that purely crypto-focused retail strategies may overlook. - Many retail traders fail because they confuse a trading plan with simply having an opinion. Successful traders, according to Koroush, focus on consistent execution of a tested strategy, diligent journaling to analyze performance data, and maintaining emotional discipline. In contrast, flawed approaches often involve emotionally-driven decisions, such as revenge trading after a loss or abandoning a strategy after a few setbacks. - The idea of a predictable four-year market cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin halving events, is being challenged. This cycle saw previous bull markets result in drawdowns of around 80%, but the increased presence of institutional capital and a more mature market may be altering these historical patterns. - Traditional retail strategies like chasing "green candles" (buying into a rapid price increase) or failing to adapt to different market conditions (e.g., using a trend-following strategy in a sideways market) are becoming increasingly ineffective. The current environment favors traders who can identify and trade based on the prevailing market structure, rather than relying on a single, static approach. - A common failure point is the lack of a clear distinction between a trade and an investment. Traders may turn a losing trade into an unplanned long-term hold, hoping it will recover, which fundamentally breaks the initial thesis and risk parameters of the trade. - The current market often exploits reactive retail strategies that rely on lagging indicators. Institutional and algorithmic trading can create "liquidity sweeps" or "manipulation traps" that stop out these retail positions before the intended price move occurs, highlighting the need for more sophisticated strategies that account for smart money concepts.
