Stablecoin market at $311 billion; Citi projects $1.9T

Citi said in a September 2025 report that stablecoin issuance had climbed to about $280 billion from roughly $200 billion at the start of 2025, and the bank raised its 2030 base-case forecast to $1.9 trillion. The report, “Stablecoins 2030: Web3 to Wall Street,” also lifted Citi’s bull-case estimate to $4.0 trillion from $3.7 trillion. Citi attributed the revision to rapid growth in the market and a wider set of project announcements in the United States and abroad. ### Where does the $1.9 trillion number come from? Citi’s September 2025 report is the source of the $1.9 trillion figure. The bank wrote that it was revising its “stablecoin total issuance forecasts” to a $1.9 trillion base case and a $4.0 trillion bull case by 2030, after stronger-than-expected growth over the prior six months. (citigroup.com) The same report said issuance volumes were about $280 billion at the time of publication. That means the widely shared $311 billion figure appears to reflect a later market reading or social-media restatement, not the number shown in Citi’s published report itself. Citi’s public report page also summarizes the revised 2030 forecast at $1.9 trillion in the base case. (citigroup.com) ### What exactly is Citi forecasting? Citi framed the projection as total stablecoin issuance by 2030, not a forecast limited to one issuer. The bank said the increase was driven by crypto-native activity, digitally native companies moving into payments and commerce, and international demand for dollar-denominated holdings. Citi also said stablecoins could support nearly $100 trillion in transaction activity by 2030 in its base case if velocity reaches 50 times, a level it compared with fiat payment velocity over time. (citigroup.com) In the bull case, Citi said the same framework would imply about $200 trillion in transactions. ### How is the CLARITY Act connected to this? (citigroup.com) H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, is a U.S. House bill that would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and define roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Congress.gov lists the bill as introduced on May 29, 2025, and passed by the House on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 vote. (citigroup.com) It was later received in the Senate and referred to the Senate Banking Committee on September 18, 2025. House Financial Services Committee materials described the bill as creating “clear rules of the road” for digital assets. Citi’s report did not hinge its forecast on one single legislative outcome in the lines available publicly, but it did say evolving regulation and project announcements were part of the backdrop for its higher forecast. (congress.gov) ### Why do stablecoins matter to big banks and policymakers? Citi said stablecoins sit at the center of what it called blockchain’s “ChatGPT moment” for finance, while also arguing that crypto would not replace the existing financial system outright. The bank said stablecoins may become a useful tool for digitally native companies, investors and households in frontier markets seeking easier access to dollars. (financialservices.house.gov) Citi has also argued in related research that larger stablecoin adoption could lead issuers to buy more than $1 trillion of additional U.S. Treasuries by 2030 in its base case. That would make stablecoin issuers among the larger holders of Treasuries, according to the bank’s “Digital Dollars” report. (finance.yahoo.com) ### What should readers watch next? The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee is the next formal stop for H.R. 3633, according to Congress.gov. Citi’s published forecast remains the clearest primary-source benchmark: about $280 billion in issuance at the time of its September 2025 report, $1.9 trillion in the base case by 2030, and $4.0 trillion in the bull case. (congress.gov) (citigroup.com)