Hormuz ceasefire strain

Hours after Washington said it would extend the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire indefinitely, Iran seized two container ships and three other vessels came under gunfire. (reuters.com; lloydslist.com) The Reuters report on April 22 said the United States would keep the truce in place, but it was unclear whether Iran had agreed to the extension. Lloyd’s List reported the same day that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed it had seized two Mediterranean Shipping Co.-operated boxships in the strait. (reuters.com; lloydslist.com) Lloyd’s List identified the ships as MSC Francesca and Epaminondas, and said a third vessel, the Euphoria, was fired on but escaped damage and continued toward the Gulf of Oman. A separate Lloyd’s List report said traffic through Hormuz had already halted again on April 19 after shots were fired near commercial ships. (lloydslist.com; lloydslist.com) The strait is a narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said flows through Hormuz averaged about 20 million barrels a day in 2024, equal to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) That makes every disruption there an oil-market event, even when the waterway is not fully closed. The Energy Information Administration said Hormuz also handled more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. (eia.gov; eia.gov) Oil stayed elevated on April 23 as traders watched stalled diplomacy and limited ship movements instead of a formal blockade. CNBC reported Brent crude rose 92 cents to $102.83 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate gained 84 cents to $93.80 by 8:52 a.m. Eastern time. (cnbc.com) CNBC said both benchmarks had already climbed more than $3 on April 22, helped by U.S. fuel inventory draws and by the lack of progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Earlier in the week, CNBC reported Brent had closed at $98.48 and West Texas Intermediate at $89.61 as doubts grew over whether talks would happen before the ceasefire expired. (cnbc.com; cnbc.com) Shipping companies had reason to be cautious even before this week’s seizures. Lloyd’s List reported on April 8 that more than 800 ships were stuck inside the Middle East Gulf after the conflict began on February 28, with owners waiting for any opening to move vessels out. (lloydslist.com) The latest incidents also came after the U.S. Navy seized the Iranian-flagged boxship Touska in the Gulf of Oman on April 20, according to Lloyd’s List. Tehran called that action piracy, and the exchange added another military flashpoint around a route that energy buyers, shipowners and insurers need to stay predictable. (lloydslist.com) For now, the ceasefire exists on paper, but ships are still being boarded, fired on or turned back in the world’s busiest oil chokepoint. As long as that gap remains, traders are pricing Hormuz as disrupted rather than reopened. (reuters.com; cnbc.com; eia.gov)