Michael’s opening tracking

Lionsgate’s Michael heads into its April 24 opening with one of 2026’s biggest box office forecasts, even as critics have given it poor early marks. (boxofficetheory.com) Box Office Theory projected a $74 million to $95 million domestic debut on April 22, while studio tracking was listed at $65 million or more. Variety reported the film was targeting $65 million to $70 million from about 3,900 North American theaters, with some exhibitors expecting closer to $80 million. (boxofficetheory.com) (variety.com) The movie opens in U.S. theaters on Friday, April 24, 2026. Lionsgate’s official ticketing site lists Antoine Fuqua as director and Jaafar Jackson, Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Miles Teller and Colman Domingo in the cast. (tickets.michael.movie) (lionsgatepublicity.com) Rotten Tomatoes’ review roundup published April 21 said the first reviews were mixed and described the film as “flashy and nostalgic” but “safe and a little hollow.” FilmBook reported the movie was sitting at 27% on Rotten Tomatoes in its early review window. (editorial.rottentomatoes.com) (film-book.com) That split matters at the box office because trackers are counting on strong turnout from Michael Jackson fans, especially older women, premium-screen buyers and late ticket buyers. Box Office Theory said walk-up sales, particularly in Black communities, could be important to whether the film reaches the top of its range. (boxofficetheory.com) The opening would put Michael in record territory for a music biopic if it lands near current forecasts. Variety said even the low end would top Bohemian Rhapsody’s $51 million debut, while Box Office Theory noted the benchmark for a broader biopic remains Oppenheimer at $82.5 million. (variety.com) (boxofficetheory.com) The film also arrives after a costly and unusual production reset. Variety reported the budget rose from about $155 million after producers discovered the filmed third act referenced a 1993 abuse case that could not be depicted under a prior settlement clause, forcing additional photography and a one-year release delay. (variety.com) Deadline put the current production cost closer to $200 million and said Universal is handling international distribution in most overseas markets. It projected roughly $75 million to $80 million overseas and about $140 million to $150 million worldwide by Sunday. (deadline.com) So the first weekend is shaping up as a direct test of whether fan demand can outweigh poor reviews. By Sunday, the numbers should show whether Michael plays like a critic-resistant event or a front-loaded nostalgia draw. (boxofficetheory.com) (variety.com)