800k EVs Flood Used Market
Analysts expect about 800,000 electric vehicles to hit the used market as leases expire, a wave that could push down resale values and stress dealer balance sheets by 2028. (autoweek.com) That macro pressure comes as U.S. retail auto sales face a rough Q1 — overall light‑vehicle sales are on track to fall about 6.3% in Q1, with at least one Detroit brand posting notably weak numbers. (carscoops.com)
Industry analysts now put potential industry writedowns as high as $8 billion tied to the coming off‑lease EV returns, a figure calculated from gaps between residual forecasts and wholesale realizations. (autoblog.com) Multiple market reports say average realized resale prices for returned EVs are running roughly $10,000 below earlier projections, with model‑by‑model shortfalls ranging from about $5,000 to $20,000. (msn.com) Wholesale operator Manheim reports EVs were only ~5% of lease maturities in 2025 but expects that share to rise to about 12% in 2026 and near 23% by 2028, shifting the composition of auction lanes and dealer lots. (coxautoinc.com) Cox Automotive’s March call showed new‑EV registrations plunged ~28% in Q1 2026 to about 212,600 units while Cox estimates used‑EV transactions climbed roughly 12% to 93,500 units, narrowing the price gap with comparable gas cars to roughly $1,300. (electrek.co) Manheim says it has installed roughly 800 EV chargers across auction sites, certified 45 locations as EV‑ready, and trained about 550 technicians to handle high volumes and battery‑specific processes. (coxautoinc.com) Automakers and captive finance arms are accelerating alternative remarketing tactics — faster wholesale lanes, expanded certified pre‑owned programs and targeted incentives — while industry sources warn captive lenders will need “creative” strategies to absorb residual shortfalls. (autonews.com) Edmunds’ Q1 forecast puts U.S. new‑vehicle sales at about 3,693,459 units (a 6.3% year‑over‑year drop) and a SAAR near 15.9 million, with major groups showing steep quarterly slides—Ford projected down ~10.6% year‑over‑year and GM down ~9.8% for Q1. (carscoops.com)
