Floorplan risk is selective
Floorplan pressure is becoming selective: some dealers carry slow‑turning new units that require incentives and tie up lines, while others lack used supply and face rising values (autos.yahoo.com). Equity‑market commentary on dealership stocks and new product complexity underscores how uneven turns and product mix can hide liquidity stress in aggregated portfolios (insidermonkey.com).
Floorplan risk is no longer hitting every dealership the same way. In early 2026, some lots were carrying new vehicles for three months or more, while used-car supply stayed much tighter. (coxautoinc.com) Cox Automotive said U.S. dealers had 2.85 million new vehicles in stock in February 2026, equal to a 92-day supply. In the same report, vehicles priced at $35,000 to $45,000 were leaner at about 81 days, while the mid-range band it highlighted was running near 120 days. (coxautoinc.com) The brand spread was wider still. Cox put Ford at roughly 121 days of supply in February and Jeep at 151 days, numbers that point to slower turns and higher carrying costs on some mainstream nameplates. (coxautoinc.com) Floorplan financing is the revolving credit line dealers use to stock vehicles, paying the lender back when each car sells. When units sit longer, interest expense rises and cash gets tied up in inventory that may need price cuts or factory incentives to move. (irs.gov) (acvauctions.com) Used vehicles were telling a different story at the start of 2026. Cox said dealers had 2.20 million used vehicles on their lots in January, a 49-day supply, and noted supply was still more than 10 days below the same point in 2019. (coxautoinc.com) That tighter used market has supported prices. Cox put the average used-vehicle listing price at $26,043 in January, up about 1% from a year earlier, while it said affordable used options remained limited. (coxautoinc.com) Certified pre-owned inventory has been especially constrained because fewer leased vehicles are coming back to market. Cox said December 2025 certified pre-owned sales rose to 216,955 from 208,708 in November, but were down 4.9% from a year earlier because off-lease and trade-in supply was thin. (coxautoinc.com) The financing backdrop has not disappeared, even with some rate relief. Bankrate’s weekly survey showed the average rate for a 60-month new-car loan at 7.00% on April 9, 2026, keeping monthly payments elevated for buyers and slowing the pace at which some dealers can clear aging stock. (bankrate.com) Public dealership groups have been telling investors the same story in pieces rather than in one headline number. Penske Automotive said on February 11, 2026 that 2025 revenue fell to nearly $32 billion from the prior year’s higher level, while Chair Roger Penske said inventory remained “in good shape,” underscoring how portfolio-level results can mask uneven conditions by brand and market. (investors.penskeautomotive.com) Lithia & Driveway made a similar point in its own reporting style. In its February 2026 fourth-quarter release, the company separately adjusted operating cash flow to show changes in non-trade floor plan debt, a reminder that dealership liquidity can look different once vehicle financing is pulled apart from the rest of the business. (investors.lithiadriveway.com) The result is a market where the average inventory number can mislead. A dealer with fast-selling used cars and balanced new stock faces one set of risks; a dealer loaded with 120-day or 150-day new units faces another. (coxautoinc.com 1) (coxautoinc.com 2)
