Pension funds to buy $13.8B
Goldman projects U.S. pension funds will buy roughly $13.8 billion of equities by quarter‑end—funded largely by bond sales as institutions rebalance amid market dislocations, a level that tops 97% of recent monthly purchases. That flow could be a meaningful bid into stressed equity pockets near month end. (x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2037359703249060139)
Goldman’s trading‑floor note was authored by Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett and Lee Coppersmith, members of the bank’s flow‑of‑funds and equities execution team. (bloomberg.com) The bank’s flow work shows commodity‑trading advisers (CTAs) have sold close to $55 billion of U.S. equities this month and are approximately $18.41 billion net short, a source of sustained downside supply. (bloomberg.com) Goldman’s historical flow reads have flagged very large pension rebalances before — the bank estimated U.S. pensions sold about $19 billion at the end of May 2025 and roughly $28 billion during the June 2025 rebalance. (cnbc.com) Goldman’s liquidity monitoring shows top‑of‑book depth and futures liquidity are unusually thin: S&P‑500 futures liquidity fell to about $5.1 million on March 15, 2026, and the bank treats readings below $7 million as a market‑stress signal. (kucoin.com) Milliman’s 2025 Corporate Pension Funding Study reported that the aggregate funded status for the largest 100 U.S. corporate defined‑benefit plans improved to a $13.8 billion surplus for FY2024, a balance‑sheet gain that can increase plan sponsors’ scope to rebalance. (milliman.com) Goldman’s scenario modeling shows the mechanical flip in systematics: in a sustained rally CTAs could reverse and buy aggressively — the bank’s upside scenario puts CTA buying in the tens of billions (the firm’s model output cited a potential buy impulse on the order of $86 billion). (preprod.zerohedge.com)
