Shifting alliances on X
Online threads are amplifying a string of geopolitical shifts: posts flagged U.S. softening on Russian oil, closer Russia‑Iran ties, China urging de‑escalation, Spain pulling back U.S. military support, and new public doubts about NATO from Trump — the thread drew 531 likes and heated debate (x.com). That chatter underscores rapid sentiment swings that markets and policymakers will watch for real‑world alignment changes (x.com).
On March 12, 2026 the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued Russia‑related General License 134 authorizing transactions to deliver and sell Russian‑origin crude and petroleum products loaded aboard vessels on or before 12:01 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026, valid until 12:01 a.m. ET on April 11, 2026. (content.govdelivery.com) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the move as a “narrowly tailored, short‑term” measure to stabilize energy markets, prompting a bipartisan letter on March 23 from Reps. Gregory Meeks and Don Bacon demanding explanations over national‑security risks. (cnbc.com) Russia and Iran have formalized closer ties since signing a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in Moscow on January 17, 2025, and their foreign ministries adopted a consultations program covering 2026–2028 in December 2025. (aljazeera.com) Beijing has publicly pushed for an immediate halt to military operations and launched shuttle diplomacy in March 2026, with the Chinese foreign ministry and special envoys calling for de‑escalation to protect trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. (fmprc.gov.cn) Madrid formally barred use of its jointly operated bases for strikes on Iran on March 2, 2026, after which flight‑tracking data and Spanish officials showed roughly 15 U.S. aircraft, mainly KC‑135 tankers, departed Morón and Rota. (al-monitor.com) President Trump publicly criticized NATO’s lack of cooperation in late March 2026, saying the U.S. “doesn’t have to be there” for allies and raising the prospect of reconsidering U.S. membership during remarks at a Miami investment forum and White House meetings. (bloomberg.com) Markets and officials registered immediate effects: Brent crude traded above $100 on March 13 and hit roughly $110 by March 20 amid Strait‑of‑Hormuz disruptions, while Treasury commentary on the oil waiver coincided with a spike in risk assets including bitcoin near $72,000. (cnbc.com)
