RBA hikes; markets jitter
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.1% in a split decision — the second consecutive hike as inflation pressures persist reported. Global markets reacted unevenly: the S&P 500 rebounded after weeks of losses on cooling oil and cautious tech optimism, but volatility remains as AI-driven restructurings and fresh layoff rumors keep risk premia elevated reported.
Governor Michele Bullock had warned the March meeting would be “live” in remarks to the Australian Financial Review Business Summit on March 3, signalling the Board was prepared to act ahead of the next CPI print. (rba.gov.au) The RBA’s February Statement on Monetary Policy recorded underlying inflation at 3.4% year‑on‑year and flagged a materially higher inflation outlook, while Bloomberg noted the Bank’s February forecasts included a technical peak for CPI near 4.2% this year. (rba.gov.au) Money‑market futures on the ASX priced a greater‑than‑70% chance of another 25bp move into the May meeting earlier this week, according to market commentators, and the ASX Rate Indicator tracks those futures in real time. (marketindex.com.au) Commonwealth Bank economists continued to forecast two further 25bp lifts that would take the cash rate to about 4.35% by May if realised, a view reflected in several big‑bank updates this month. (commbank.com.au) U.S. equities staged a near‑term rebound — the S&P 500 was trading around 6,701, roughly a 1.04% gain in mid‑March — as oil eased (WTI fell to about $93.50 a barrel on March 16), even while tech‑sector restructuring and layoff trackers showed more than 45,000 cuts in early 2026 with roughly 9,200 attributed to AI‑related moves. (tradingeconomics.com) Back home, the ASX had been volatile (the market closed down about 0.4% on March 13) as analysts flagged mining weakness and rate sensitivity in banks and REITs, and the RBA confirmed its schedule to release the March meeting minutes on March 31 and the next policy decision on May 5. (abc.net.au)
