South Africa eyes R440bn grid build

South Africa’s electricity debate has shifted from power cuts to power lines. A report published by Financial Mail on September 3 said the country needs 14,500 km of new transmission lines by 2034 to connect 56 GW of mostly renewable generation envisaged in the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan. The cost estimate attached to that buildout is about R440 billion, according to the Development Bank of Southern Africa. The argument now surfacing in business and policy circles is not whether new generation is needed, but whether the grid can be expanded fast enough to carry it. ### Why are transmission lines now at the center of South Africa’s energy debate? Financial Mail reported on September 3 that the National Transmission Company South Africa, or NTCSA, is under pressure to add 14,500 km of new lines, plus transformers, substations and related infrastructure, by 2034. Monde Bala, NTCSA’s chief executive, told the publication that “very little investment went into the transmission space” over the past decade and a half. The 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, published in October 2025, is the planning backdrop. Financial Mail said the plan calls for 56 GW of mostly renewable capacity to be connected by 2034, and the grid build is meant to make that possible. ### Where does the R440 billion figure come from? The Development Bank of Southern Africa said in a 2025 note on transmission investment models that NTCSA’s 2025-2034 Transmission Development Plan requires an estimated R440 billion. (fm.co.za) The same note said the plan includes 14,500 km of new lines and 133,000 MVA of transformer capacity over the decade. SAnews reported on March 5, 2025, that Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa told the Africa Energy Indaba the fiscus could not carry the cost alone and Eskom’s balance sheet was “not sufficient,” adding that South Africa would need “bespoke financing instruments” to fund the expansion. (fm.co.za) ### Why is this such a difficult build? Financial Mail reported that Eskom built only 74 km of new transmission lines in 2023/24. (dbsa.org) Bala told the publication South Africa’s existing 33,000 km transmission system was built over about a century, while the new target would require building nearly half that length in roughly eight years. DBSA said current construction capacity is about 800 km of transmission lines a year, versus an average requirement of 1,450 km a year and a possible peak of around 2,700 km annually. (sanews.gov.za) Bala also told Financial Mail that the country is down to five credible contractors and would need to double or triple that number within about 12 to 18 months. ### Why does this matter specifically for renewables? (fm.co.za) South Africa’s best wind and solar resources are concentrated far from much of the legacy coal-based grid. That makes transmission expansion a precondition for connecting new renewable plants at scale, according to DBSA’s summary of the NTCSA plan. Ramokgopa said in March 2025 that the grid had to be modernised and expanded over the next decade, linking the effort directly to energy security and the broader clean-energy transition. (dbsa.org) Financial Mail’s reporting tied the line build to the retirement path of older coal capacity and the connection of replacement generation. ### What is the government and NTCSA doing next? (dbsa.org) DBSA said the first phase of the pipeline covers 5,000 km of projects between 2025 and 2029 and would require R112 billion of investment. It also said the Ministry of Electricity and Energy and National Treasury launched a request for information on December 12, 2024, for an Independent Transmission Projects pilot. That pilot was planned to cover procurement of 1,164 km of transmission lines from private investors, according to DBSA. (sanews.gov.za) NTCSA’s website lists its Transmission Development Plans as the formal home for the programme, while the broader 2025 Integrated Resource Plan remains the generation roadmap the grid build is meant to serve. (dbsa.org)