Incumbent Crenshaw Ousted in Texas Primary
In a major Super Tuesday upset, Republican incumbent Dan Crenshaw was defeated by hardline conservative challenger Steve Toth in the Texas primary. The result is being seen as a significant signal of the GOP's continued rightward shift and the power of insurgent candidates within the party.
The upset was fueled by a significant ideological rift within the party. Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL once seen as a rising GOP star, drew ire from the party's right wing for his support of Ukraine aid and for calling some conservative colleagues "performance artists." Challenger Steve Toth, a state representative from the legislature's hard-right faction, successfully positioned himself as the more consistently conservative choice. A key factor in the race was the lack of an endorsement for the incumbent from former President Donald Trump; Crenshaw was the only Texas House Republican running without it. In contrast, Toth secured a late, high-profile endorsement from U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, who even appeared in a super PAC ad supporting him. The House Freedom Caucus's political arm also backed Toth. Despite a massive fundraising advantage, Crenshaw could not overcome the insurgent challenge. Pro-Crenshaw super PACs spent nearly $1.7 million, dwarfing the more than $400,000 spent by a PAC supporting Toth. Crenshaw's own campaign out-raised Toth by more than $1.3 million. Toth's victory was also aided by recent redistricting that made the suburban Houston district more conservative. A significant portion of Toth's state legislative district was drawn into the new congressional boundaries, giving him a familiar base of support. Toth, who authored a 2021 state law targeting the teaching of critical race theory, campaigned on a platform of securing the border and putting "America First." His win is seen as a rejection of Crenshaw's criticism of the MAGA movement and his vote to certify the 2020 election results. Looking ahead to the November general election, Toth is heavily favored to win in the strongly Republican district. He will face Democratic businessman Shaun Finnie, who ran unopposed in his primary.