U.S. social commerce forecast $1.81T

Research and Markets said on May 22 that the U.S. social commerce market is projected to reach $1.81 trillion by 2031, from $1.34 trillion in 2026. The forecast, distributed through GlobeNewswire and listed on Research and Markets, said the sector grew at an 11.3% compound annual rate from 2022 to 2025 and is expected to expand at 6.3% annually through 2031. The report named TikTok Shop, YouTube Shopping and Pinterest as leading platforms in a market it said is moving deeper into in-app buying. The forecast is one of a growing number of industry estimates trying to map how shopping behavior is shifting from referral traffic to transactions completed inside social feeds. ### Why is the $1.81 trillion number getting attention? The $1.81 trillion figure stands out because it is attached to a single-country forecast rather than a global market estimate. Research and Markets said the U.S. market could rise from about $1.25 trillion in 2025 to about $1.81 trillion by the end of 2031. The report also valued the 2026 market at roughly $1.34 trillion. (finance.yahoo.com) Those figures are much larger than some other published U.S. social commerce estimates, which suggests the databook is using a broader definition of the category. The release frames social commerce as a wide set of transactions influenced or completed within social platforms, rather than only direct storefront sales on apps such as TikTok Shop. That definition matters when comparing the number with narrower forecasts focused on direct retail sales through social channels. (researchandmarkets.com) This is an inference based on the gap between the databook figures and other market trackers’ estimates. ### What does the report say is changing inside the market? The report said one major shift is the move from referral-based shopping to in-platform transactions. In its summary, the databook said U.S. social commerce is transitioning toward purchases completed inside apps, with TikTok Shop adding retail features including gift cards and Venmo checkout. (finance.yahoo.com) A second shift is the growing role of creators as sales channels. The release said market opportunities include “enhancing creator roles as sales channels,” reflecting how platforms are tying product discovery, trust and checkout more closely to creator-led video. (uk.finance.yahoo.com) A third shift is the rise of specialist platforms. The report singled out TikTok Shop, YouTube Shopping and Pinterest, suggesting momentum is not limited to the largest general social networks. The framing points to a market where platform-specific shopping formats — short video, creator demos, live selling and visual search — are becoming more central to conversion. (finance.yahoo.com) ### Why do TikTok Shop, YouTube Shopping and Pinterest matter here? TikTok Shop matters because outside research has also identified it as a major growth driver in U.S. social commerce. Retail Dive, citing eMarketer, reported earlier this year that TikTok Shop was expected to account for nearly 20% of social commerce in 2025 and that its sales would top $20 billion in 2026. (finance.yahoo.com) YouTube Shopping and Pinterest matter because both are built around discovery formats that can shorten the path from viewing to purchase. The databook’s inclusion of those platforms alongside TikTok Shop suggests the market is rewarding environments where consumers can move from inspiration to checkout without leaving the app. That is an inference drawn from the platform mix highlighted in the report. (retaildive.com) ### What does this mean for brands making short-form video? Short-form video is increasingly being treated as a sales asset, not only a branding format. The report’s emphasis on in-platform transactions and creator-led selling points toward product demos, trust-building clips, creator collaborations and shoppable edits designed to reduce friction before checkout. (finance.yahoo.com) For brands, that means measuring more than reach. If purchases are happening inside feeds, the useful metrics shift toward click-through, add-to-cart behavior, conversion and repeat creative formats that can be tied to sales. The databook is available now through Research and Markets, where buyers can review the full methodology, market definitions and platform breakdowns behind the 2031 forecast. (finance.yahoo.com) (researchandmarkets.com)