Trump aides restrain Iran war

Top aides to President Donald Trump are trying to keep the war with Iran from widening before the November midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Reuters reported on September 2 that the effort is aimed at limiting Republican losses as the party defends slim congressional majorities. The strategy is already under pressure as the United States and Iran resumed overnight attacks, according to the Reuters report. A new UMass Amherst poll added to the political strain this week. The survey of 1,000 respondents, conducted August 21-26, found Trump’s job approval at 32% and said more than two-thirds disapproved of his handling of the Iran war. Four in five respondents said the war had increased gas and food prices, according to UMass Amherst. ### Why are Trump aides trying to keep the conflict contained right now? (usnews.com) Reuters reported that White House aides want to avoid a broader military confrontation with Iran before voters go to the polls in November. Four people familiar with the discussions told Reuters the concern inside Trump’s orbit is that a larger war would deepen political damage for Republicans already facing a difficult midterm map. (umass.edu) November is the immediate deadline driving that calculation. Reuters said the White House is trying to keep the conflict “quiet” for now, even as back-and-forth attacks make that harder to sustain. ### What do the newest polls say about the political cost? The UMass Amherst poll released August 31 showed 32% approving of Trump’s job performance and roughly two-thirds disapproving overall. (usnews.com) The same poll found more than two-thirds disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war. Eighty percent of respondents in the UMass survey said the war had pushed up gas and food prices. (usnews.com) That finding ties the conflict abroad to household costs at home, a connection the poll measured directly rather than inferred. ### Are all the polls moving against Trump? An I&I/TIPP poll published August 31 showed a modest improvement in Trump’s personal ratings. (umass.edu) The poll found 40% of adults viewed Trump favorably and 50% unfavorably, compared with 39% favorable and 52% unfavorable a month earlier. The broader electoral picture in Economist/YouGov’s August 28-31 survey remained tougher for Republicans. (umass.edu) YouGov said Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 46% to 39% among U.S. adult citizens, while Trump’s second-term job approval stood at 39% and disapproval at 60%. ### Why does inflation keep showing up in this story? (yahoo.com) Gasoline and grocery prices are central because voters are linking them to the war. The UMass Amherst findings showed four in five respondents blaming the conflict for higher gas and food prices, making cost-of-living pressure part of the political fallout measured in the survey. Economist/YouGov’s polling also showed prices remain a top public concern. (yougov.com) In the survey materials posted this week, inflation and prices were among the issues respondents cited most often when asked about the country’s biggest problems. ### What comes next before Election Day? November’s midterm elections are the next fixed milestone in the story. Reuters reported that Trump’s aides are trying to avoid further escalation before then, while public polling from UMass Amherst, I&I/TIPP and Economist/YouGov is already tracking whether the war and consumer prices are changing voter sentiment. (umass.edu) (yougov.com) Further U.S.-Iran military exchanges could test that strategy before ballots are cast. For now, the clearest public measures are the August 21-26 UMass Amherst poll and the August 28-31 Economist/YouGov survey, both released in the final days before September 2. (umass.edu) (usnews.com)