TransUnion Forecasts Continued Loan Origination Growth
TransUnion's 2026 forecast shows continued positive momentum for credit originations across mortgage, auto, credit card, and personal loans. The findings, released with its Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, point toward moderate expansion in lending.
- The forecast breaks down 2026 origination growth as follows: unsecured personal loans at +11.2%, mortgage refinances at +4.2%, mortgage purchases at +4.0%, and credit cards at +2.0%. - Auto loans are the only category projected to decline, with an anticipated drop of 1.5% in originations. This follows a period of accelerated consumer purchasing in 2025, which was driven by anticipated tariffs and the expiration of certain EV tax credits. - Unsecured personal loans are set for a third straight year of growth, with total balances reaching a record $276 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Growth in this sector has been significantly driven by subprime borrowers, who increased their originations by 32.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025. - The rebound in the mortgage market is influenced by easing 30-year mortgage rates, which improve affordability. Additionally, home equity originations saw a sixth consecutive quarter of growth, with total available home equity surging to $21.4 trillion. - While originations are growing, consumer-level serious delinquencies (60+ days past due) for mortgages are projected to reach 1.65% by the end of 2026. Auto loan delinquencies for the same period are expected to level out at 1.54%. - A subtle shift in overall consumer credit health was signaled in late 2025, as the median VantageScore® credit score saw a year-over-year decline of 2 points to 711.
