Jet fuel pressures reshape flying

Airlines are rewriting schedules and raising fares as jet fuel prices spike, turning fuel from a cost line into a route-planning problem. (qantas.com) Qantas said on April 14 that its fuel bill for the second half of fiscal 2026 is now expected to reach A$3.1 billion to A$3.3 billion, up from a previous A$2.5 billion forecast. The airline said jet fuel prices had “more than doubled” since its half-year results and that jet refining margins jumped from about US$20 a barrel in February to a peak near US$120. (qantas.com) Qantas said it has responded with international network changes, fare increases and capacity cuts, including a reduction of about 5 percentage points in domestic capacity in May and June. It also said it shifted aircraft from United States and domestic routes to add flights to Paris and Rome, where demand has stayed strong. (abc.net.au) Air New Zealand moved earlier. On March 10, it suspended fiscal 2026 guidance, saying jet fuel that had been around US$85 to US$90 a barrel before the Middle East conflict had risen to US$150 to US$200 in recent days. (nzx.com) Air New Zealand said the crack spread — the refinery margin between crude oil and jet fuel — widened from about US$22 a barrel before the conflict to as high as US$115. The airline said it had already made initial fare adjustments and could change its network and schedule if elevated fuel costs persist. (nzx.com) That crack spread is the part airlines cannot fully hedge away. Qantas said it has hedged about 90% of its second-half fiscal 2026 crude exposure, and Air New Zealand said it is 83% hedged against Brent crude, but both carriers said they remain exposed to refining margins on finished jet fuel. (qantas.com, nzx.com) Industry benchmarks show how fast the market moved. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet fuel price rose 7.1% week over week to US$209 a barrel, and Airlines for America listed the Argus United States Jet Fuel Index at US$4.08 a gallon on April 10. (iata.org, airlines.org) For travelers, the immediate effect is not one global fare jump but a patchwork of higher prices, trimmed frequencies and aircraft shifted toward routes that can carry the extra cost. Qantas said second-half international unit revenue is now expected to rise 4% to 6%, double its previous guidance, while domestic unit revenue growth is expected at about 5%. (qantas.com) Some airlines pass more of the increase through explicit surcharges. Emirates’ published carrier fees effective April 1 show one-way fuel surcharges of US$226 in economy to Europe and US$322 in economy to the Americas, rising to US$623 and US$1,023 in business and first class on those same regions. (emirates.com) The pressure is also uneven inside national networks. In New Zealand, regional leaders told Radio New Zealand they were worried that any Air New Zealand schedule cuts would hit smaller cities first, after the airline warned it might adjust where it flies and how often. (rnz.co.nz) The next test is whether fuel markets settle before northern summer schedules lock in. Until they do, airlines are treating every route as a margin decision, not just a seat map. (qantas.com, nzx.com)