China trade data softens

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March while imports jumped, narrowing the country’s trade surplus far more than economists expected. (cnbc.com) China’s exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $321.0 billion in March, down from a combined 21.8% increase in January and February and below a Reuters poll forecast of 8.6%. Imports climbed 27.8% to $269.9 billion, the fastest growth in more than four years. (cnbc.com) That left China with a March trade surplus of $51.13 billion, down from $101.93 billion a year earlier and well below market expectations of about $112 billion. Official customs tables dated April 8 put total March trade at $590.9 billion. (tradingeconomics.com) (english.customs.gov.cn) The split points to two different pressures at once: weaker foreign demand for Chinese goods and heavier buying of materials and components by Chinese factories. Reuters and CNBC both said higher energy costs and shipping disruption tied to the Iran war hit manufacturers in March. (reuters.com) (cnbc.com) China has leaned on trade to support growth while household spending and the property market stayed weak. Goldman Sachs said in January it expected China’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2026, with exports still doing much of the work. (goldmansachs.com) The March figures also show where that trade is shifting. Customs data show China’s March exports to the United States fell 16.6% from a year earlier, while exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 18.4% and exports to the European Union rose 17.6%. (english.customs.gov.cn) Imports were not broad strength everywhere. In the customs breakdown by trade mode, ordinary-trade exports fell 3.6% in March even as ordinary-trade imports rose 16.8%, while processing trade that relies on imported inputs posted much faster gains. (english.customs.gov.cn) Some of the March slowdown in exports may fade in later data. Bloomberg said the timing of the Lunar New Year and a higher base from March 2025 likely exaggerated the month’s drop after China combined January and February trade data earlier this year. (bloomberg.com) For April, the question is whether March’s import surge was stockpiling ahead of higher costs or a sign that factory demand is holding up better than export demand. The next customs release will show whether March was a one-month distortion or the start of a narrower trade cushion. (cnbc.com)