Surge in fallen home deals

Nearly 53,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements fell apart in March, the highest March cancellation share since 2020. (redfin.com) Redfin said those cancellations equaled 13.4% of homes that went under contract in March, up from 12.5% a year earlier and tied with March 2023 for the highest share on record outside the pandemic shock. (redfin.com) The report, published April 22, was based on Multiple Listing Service pending-sales data. Redfin said the March comparison matters because cancellations usually run lower in spring than at the end of the year. (redfin.com) A canceled contract means a signed deal did not make it to closing. The National Association of Realtors calls pending sales a leading indicator because they track signed contracts before money changes hands. (nar.realtor) March closings were already soft: existing-home sales fell 3.6% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, while the median price rose 1.4% from a year earlier to $408,800. The National Association of Realtors said lower consumer confidence and softer job growth were holding buyers back. (nar.realtor) Mortgage costs stayed high enough to keep payments heavy. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.30% on April 16, down from 6.46% two weeks earlier but still well above the sub-4% loans many owners locked in earlier in the decade. (freddiemac.com) Redfin said the fallout was concentrated in buyer-heavy markets where shoppers have more room to walk away. San Antonio posted the highest March cancellation rate among the major metros Redfin tracked at 18.7%, followed by Orlando and Riverside at 18.1%, Atlanta at 18.0%, and Las Vegas at 17.8%. (redfin.com) The lowest cancellation rates were in tighter markets. Redfin said Nassau County, New York, had the lowest share at 3.5%, followed by Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, at 6.8% and Milwaukee at 8.5%. (redfin.com) Redfin also said the country has about 600,000 more home sellers than buyers, a gap that gives purchasers more leverage to demand repairs, keep inspection contingencies, or back out and shop again. In that kind of market, a “pending” label says less about whether a sale will actually close. (businesswire.com) For lenders, agents, and listing platforms, more broken deals mean more files that stop midstream and more records that have to be updated when a home goes from pending back to active. For buyers and sellers, March’s numbers show that a signed contract is increasingly a checkpoint, not the finish line. (stocktitan.net)