150K flights flagged

Airlines have stripped more than 150,000 international flights from May and June schedules compared with prewar plans, according to aviation analysts tracking the spring pullback. (cirium.com) Cirium said planned global airline capacity for May has been cut by about three percentage points since early March, and 19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines have reduced May schedules. The cuts have centered on lower-demand routes and markets with multiple daily flights. (cirium.com) (finance.yahoo.com) The immediate pressure is fuel. The International Air Transport Association said on April 17 that Europe could start seeing cancellations by the end of May for lack of jet fuel, and that parts of Asia were already seeing disruptions. (iata.org) The fuel warning followed an April 16 interview in which International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left if supplies remained blocked. IATA said the squeeze stems from the Middle East conflict that escalated on February 28 and the collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (apnews.com) (iata.org) Europe is exposed because it imports roughly 25 percent to 30 percent of its jet fuel demand from the Persian Gulf, IATA said last month. The group said tanker traffic through Hormuz had fallen 70 percent to 80 percent after the conflict widened. (iata.org) Airlines are responding route by route. Lufthansa said it would accelerate the retirement of 27 CityLine planes, while KLM said it would operate 80 fewer return flights from Amsterdam Schiphol in May, hitting routes such as London and Düsseldorf. (politico.eu) The disruption is not only about missing fuel. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s airspace has been closed to civil aviation, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s transport forum said war-related airspace closures forced international flights onto longer routes with higher fuel burn and costs. (itf-oecd.org) European officials dispute the most severe shortage forecasts. European Union Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said this week that cancellations announced so far were tied to high fuel costs, not an actual lack of supply, even as the Commission studied alternative imports and reserve options. (finance.yahoo.com) (aljazeera.com) For travelers, the practical change is a thinner schedule before the summer peak. Fewer frequencies on international routes leave less room for rebooking when flights are cut, and several carriers have already raised fares or added fuel-related charges as jet fuel prices climbed toward $200 a barrel. (finance.yahoo.com) (independent.co.uk)