Tariffs move into base‑case planning

Tariffs are no longer a short-term disruption in corporate planning. In a PwC survey of 633 United States executives conducted in March, 86% said they now treat tariffs as a “permanent planning assumption.” (pwc.com, finance.yahoo.com) That marks a shift from the first Trump tariff wave in 2018 and 2019, when many companies planned around exemptions, delays, or a policy reversal after an election. PwC tax partner Kristin Bohl told Fortune that chief executives are no longer planning around “short-term tariffs.” (finance.yahoo.com, aol.com) The policy backdrop has kept moving in one direction. On April 2, 2026, President Donald Trump issued Proclamation 11021, which modified Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and many derivative products, and the rule was published in the Federal Register on April 9. (federalregister.gov, whitehouse.gov) For finance teams, a tariff is now less like a one-off fee and more like a recurring cost line, similar to freight or wages. KPMG said in April 2026 that tariffs can affect inventory values, impairment tests, purchase commitments, liquidity, disclosures, and projected financial information. (kpmg.com) The economics behind that shift are straightforward: importers usually pay most of the tariff bill. A National Bureau of Economic Research summary published April 1 said the pass-through rate was 94% for the 2025 tariffs, meaning United States importers bore most of the cost rather than foreign exporters cutting prices enough to offset it. (nber.org) That cost does not stay at the border. A June 2025 New York Federal Reserve survey found about three-quarters of manufacturers and service firms facing tariff-driven cost increases passed along at least some of those costs to customers by raising prices. (newyorkfed.org) Companies also cannot assume that switching suppliers will erase the hit. A February 2026 St. Louis Federal Reserve analysis found that while some foreign suppliers lowered pre-tariff prices, those savings were offset by United States firms shifting orders to alternative suppliers with higher underlying prices and faster price growth. (stlouisfed.org) That is why tariff planning is moving into sourcing, pricing, and capital allocation at the same time. If a manufacturer expects duties to last through multiple budget cycles, it has to decide whether to move production, sign longer contracts, hold more inventory, automate plants, or accept lower margins. (kpmg.com, nber.org) The broader chief executive mood is already cautious. PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey, released January 19, 2026, found only 30% of chief executives were very or extremely confident about revenue growth over the next 12 months, down from 38% a year earlier, while 29% said tariffs would reduce net profit margin over the next year. (pwc.com, pwc.com) So the practical change is not that tariffs suddenly appeared in 2026. It is that more companies now appear to be budgeting for them as a standing feature of doing business, even after the current political cycle ends. (finance.yahoo.com, aol.com)