Most Americans still see China rival

China is still the country Americans most instinctively size up as a rival. But the reason matters. This is not mostly a war scare story. It is an economic anxiety story — about prices, jobs, trade leverage, and whether the U.S. is getting outplayed. That is the backdrop as Donald Trump heads to Beijing this week for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15. ### What did the new poll actually show? The clearest result is that Americans still see China through a competitive lens. By a five-to-two margin, people described China as a rival or adversary rather than an ally or necessary partner. And 78% said China wants to play a dominant role in the world. So the basic public mood is still wary, even if it is not purely hawkish. (globalaffairs.org) ### Why is the threat seen as economic first? Because people think China’s power hits their lives through markets before it hits them through missiles. In the survey, 56% said China’s growing economic power is the bigger threat, versus 29% who picked military power. That gap matters. It means voters are reacting less to abstract geopolitics and more to the feeling that China can undercut U.S. industry, shape supply chains, and pressure American households through prices. (globalaffairs.org) ### So do Americans want a hard break with China? Not really. That is the interesting part. A 62% majority opposed significantly reducing U.S.-China trade if it would raise costs for American consumers. Basically, people want toughness without paying too much for it. They are comfortable with rivalry. They are less comfortable with a strategy that makes everyday goods more expensive. (globalaffairs.org) ### What about tariffs? This is where the numbers get blunt. In the poll, 76% said tariffs are bad for the U.S. cost of living, 70% said they hurt Americans’ standard of living, and 61% said they are bad for creating American jobs. Separate Chicago Council write-ups framed the public view as a lose-lose — 72% said tariffs were bad for China’s economy, and 66% said they were bad for the U.S. economy too. (vpm.org) ### Does that mean Americans want concessions? Yes — if the tradeoff looks concrete. Seven in 10 said they would support reducing tariffs in exchange for larger Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. That is a very specific kind of dealmaking logic. Voters are not asking for a friendship reset. They are saying: if you are going to bargain, bring back something visible. (globalaffairs.org) ### Are people softening on China overall? Only in a narrow sense. Americans still back limits on sensitive technology exports — 70% support blocking U.S. companies from selling sensitive high-tech products to China. So the public position is mixed but coherent: keep pressure on the strategic stuff, avoid self-inflicted pain on the consumer stuff. That is less “decouple at all costs” and more “compete carefully.” (globalaffairs.org) ### Why does this matter for the summit? Because it gives Trump both permission and constraint. He has political cover to sound tough — the public already sees China as a rival. But he also walks into Beijing with a warning light flashing on tariffs and prices. Analysts already expect modest deliverables rather than some grand reset, with trade, Taiwan, and the Iran war all hanging over the meeting. (vpm.org) ### Bottom line Americans have not changed their minds about China being a competitor. What has sharpened is the kind of competition they care about most. They are focused on the checkout line, not just the map. (globalaffairs.org) (vpm.org)