Europe faces jet‑fuel squeeze
Airlines warned that Europe’s summer flights could be at risk because the Iran war exposed a drop in refining capacity that may tighten jet‑fuel supplies before the peak season (reuters.com). At the same time U.S. local reporting says rising fuel costs are already pushing airfares higher and experts warn the trend — including carrier surcharges — could last more than a year (kgw.com) (travelandtourworld.com).
Europe’s airlines are heading into the summer travel peak with a tighter jet-fuel cushion after the Iran war disrupted supply routes and exposed how much fuel the region now imports. (reuters.com) Europe used about 1.6 million barrels a day of jet fuel last year and imported roughly 500,000 barrels a day, with about 75 percent of those imports coming from the Middle East, Reuters reported on April 15. Asian refineries that rely on Middle Eastern crude cut runs by about 3 million barrels a day between February and April, according to the International Energy Agency figures cited by Reuters. (reuters.com) That squeeze pushed European jet fuel to a record $1,800 a ton on March 18 before prices eased to about $1,450 this week, Reuters reported. Refining margins for jet fuel rose above $100 a barrel, more than five times last year’s level, according to HiLo Analytics data cited by Reuters. (reuters.com) The fuel crunch is landing as Europe’s flight volumes have already recovered to pre-pandemic levels. EUROCONTROL said 2025 traffic reached 11.05 million flights, or 100 percent of 2019 levels, and it now expects about 11.3 million flights in 2026 even after cutting its forecast following the late-February escalation in the Middle East. (eurocontrol.int) Europe’s exposure is partly self-inflicted. Reuters reported that more than 30 European refineries, equal to 16 percent of the region’s refining capacity, have shut over the past 25 years as North Sea output fell, overseas competition increased and governments pushed lower emissions. (reuters.com) Airlines are already passing some of those costs to travelers outside Europe. Portland station KGW reported on April 14 that some carriers have started adding fuel surcharges and that fares to Europe were already 30 percent to 50 percent higher than a year earlier, according to Lake Oswego travel agent Jamie Anderson. (kgw.com) In the United States, the Argus simple-average jet-fuel price tracked by Airlines for America reached $4.08 a gallon on April 10. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet fuel price was $197.83 a barrel last week, down 5.3 percent from the week before but still at elevated levels. (airlines.org) (iata.org) KGW quoted University of Portland economist Bahram Adrangi saying higher travel costs could last “six months to a year and a half” as war-related oil disruptions work through the market. That leaves airlines trying to secure enough fuel for peak-season schedules while passengers absorb the bill through higher fares and extra fees. (kgw.com)
