AAA projects 45 million travelers

AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. The forecast is slightly above 2025’s 44.8 million travelers and would set another Memorial Day weekend record, according to the auto club’s travel outlook. The projection covers trips by car, plane and other modes at the start of the summer travel season. It arrives as gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon and airfares run at their highest level for May since 2022, according to AAA and CNBC. ### How big is AAA’s Memorial Day forecast this year? AAA said 45 million travelers would leave home over the five-day holiday window, up from 44.8 million a year earlier. The organization said the increase would make 2026 the latest in a run of record Memorial Day travel forecasts. (newsroom.aaa.com) The holiday period in AAA’s forecast runs from May 21 through May 25, not just the three-day weekend. That definition matters because AAA counts trips of at least 50 miles from home across the full Thursday-to-Monday stretch. ### How many people are expected to drive, and how many will fly? (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA projected 39.1 million people would travel by car this Memorial Day period, accounting for about 87% of all travelers. Local outlets citing the forecast, including KXAN and CBS stations, reported the same breakdown. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA also projected 3.66 million domestic air travelers for the holiday. That would leave the remaining travelers using buses, trains or cruises, based on the organization’s mode-by-mode forecast. ### Why are so many still driving with gas above $4? AAA’s fuel updates showed Memorial Day weekend gas prices at four-year highs, while CNBC reported national gasoline prices were already above $4 a gallon and could approach $5 this summer. (newsroom.aaa.com) Even so, the travel group’s forecast still showed the overwhelming majority of holiday trips being made by car. CNBC reported that airfare was at its highest level since May 2022, adding another cost pressure for travelers weighing whether to drive or fly. The combination of higher pump prices and higher ticket prices has not yet reduced holiday demand enough to stop a record forecast. ### When is traffic expected to be worst? Yahoo’s Memorial Day traveler guide, citing traffic forecasts, said Monday traffic could be heavy for most of the day. (newsroom.aaa.com) USA Today and other outlets published best-and-worst-time guidance based on INRIX traffic modeling as more drivers took to the roads. (cnbc.com) INRIX traffic guidance for the holiday period has focused on late-morning and afternoon congestion in major metro areas. AAA’s forecast itself does not assign a single national choke point, but the volume of car travel in the projection points to crowded highways through the return trip on May 25. ### What should travelers watch next? (usatoday.com) Monday, May 25, is the final day in AAA’s Memorial Day travel window. Travelers looking for same-day conditions can check AAA fuel updates and local traffic guidance based on INRIX forecasts as the holiday return rush continues. (newsroom.aaa.com) (deeparrival.com)