India, Pakistan ceasefire holds after year
- A year after India’s Operation Sindoor and the May 10, 2025 ceasefire, firing has largely stayed paused, but the broader India-Pakistan dispute remains frozen. - New satellite images show repair work at Jaish-e-Mohammad’s Bahawalpur site and changes at Muzaffarabad, while the Indus Waters Treaty is still suspended. - That matters because the truce held, but the two biggest triggers — militancy and water — are now even less settled.
The military part has calmed down. That is the big change. A year after India’s Operation Sindoor and the May 10, 2025 ceasefire understanding, India and Pakistan are no longer trading daily fire across the border. But almost everything that made the crisis dangerous is still sitting there — Kashmir, cross-border militancy, and now water. (thehindu.com) ### What was Operation Sindoor? Operation Sindoor was India’s military response after the April 22, 2025 attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, that killed 26 people. India blamed Pakistan-linked militants. Pakistan denied involvement. India then struck what it said were terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered territory, and the two sides slid into several days of serious fighting before agreeing on May 10 to stop firing and military action. (thehindu.com) ### So the ceasefire really held? Mostly, yes. The first hours were messy — there were reports of firing even after the announcement in May 2025. But the bigger point is that the crisis did not reopen into another round of sustained military exchange. That is what people mean when they say the ceasefire is holding a year later: not warm peace, just the absence of renewed major combat. (thehindu.com) ### Why does this still feel unstable? Because the truce froze the shooting, not the dispute. India kept in place punitive steps it took after Pahalgam, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, and Pakistan kept arguing that those steps were unacceptable. So the border got quieter, but the political and strategic fight never actually reset. (straitstimes.com) ### Why is the water treaty such a big deal? The Indus Waters Treaty is one of the few India-Pakistan arrangements that survived wars and long diplomatic freezes. Signed in 1960, it governs how the Indus basin’s rivers are shared and supports irrigation, drinking water, and power for millions — more than 300 mi(straitstimes.com)India’s suspension hit such a nerve. (chathamhouse.org) ### What changed on water this year? Pakistan took the issue to the UN Security Council in April 2026, trying to turn the treaty suspension into a wider diplomatic problem for India. The argument from Pakistan is simple — water cannot be used as coercion. The argument from India is also simple — normal c(chathamhouse.org)errence politics. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) ### And what about the satellite images? That is the other reason the truce looks fragile. New reporting this week says satellite imagery shows fresh repair work at Jaish-e-Mohammad’s Bahawalpur compound and changes at a Muzaffaraba(economictimes.indiatimes.com)y the strikes. (indiatoday.in) ### Is this peace, then? Not really. It is more like a sealed crack in a dam — better than a breach, but still under pressure. The ceasefire reduced the immediate risk of war between two nuclear-armed states. But the two live wires that drove the last crisis — militant violence and water leverage — are still exposed. (cfr.org) ### Bottom line? The good news is that the guns stayed mostly quiet for a year. The bad news is that India and Pakistan did not use that year to rebuild trust. They used it to harden their positions. (straitstimes.com)
